California might need to ration virus health care

As California faces a rapidly mounting crisis with soaring coronavirus cases and shortages of health care workers, the best Christmas present you can give your extended family, your neighbors and your friends is to stay home.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and his health secretary, Dr. Mark Ghaly, made it clear Tuesday that the situation could get much worse before it gets better. Ghaly urged people to abide by the stay-at-home orders to avoid health care providers having to make “those hard decisions on who might receive care.”

Let that sink in for a second. We are facing the prospect in California of having to ration care.

Rising COVID-19 caseloads could soon outmatch our ability to treat patients. The problem is not only hospital capacity but, even more critically, the short supply of medical personnel — not just here but across the country.

That’s why the state has increased the number of patients each nurse will manage from two to three. Why California is urgently pwutting out the call for retired health care providers to come back to work. And why it is asking the federal government to send more doctors and nurses.

Meanwhile, the state has purchased thousands of additional body bags. Sixty refrigerated trucks are currently standing by in counties and at hospitals across the state.

The coronavirus situation is the worst it has ever been in this country. And while we are now seeing the start of vaccinations, they won’t come fast enough to head off the impending crisis.

More than 300,000 people have died in the United States from COVID-19. On Monday, daily deaths hit a record seven- day average of 2,451. In California, this month, for the first time since testing was widely available, more than 10% of those tested have the disease. The daily death rate has quadrupled in one month, and it’s getting worse.

In the 11 counties constituting what Newsom has designated as the Bay Area region, the daily number of new cases has surged to more than double the last peak, in August. Hospitalizations and cases requiring intensive care beds have soared to record levels, and the numbers continue to rise rapidly each day.

ICU capacity is tapped out in the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California regions. The Bay Area and Sacramento regions have about 15% capacity remaining. That won’t last — especially if people insist on visiting friends and relatives over the next three holiday weeks.

The best thing all of us can do to help the situation is stay home.

Again, stay home.

Too many Americans, too many Californians, ignored that message at Thanksgiving. More than 1 million people were flying on the Sunday after Thanksgiving alone, equaling 41% of the number on the same day the prior year.

Little wonder the surge of cases, which began before the holiday, continues worsening. And as bad as the COVID-19 effect from Thanksgiving has been, the fallout from the Hanukkah, Christmas and New Year’s holidays likely will be even worse.

We’re at a critical juncture. We can heed the pleas to stay home, to wear a mask and maintain distance from others when we must go out, to make a personal sacrifice for the common good.

Or we as a society can continue our selfish behavior, defying health and court orders by congregating without masks for religious services, demanding to let patrons dine in close proximity to others, and complaining about not being able to play contact sports.

Yes, there are some inconsistencies with the stay-athome orders, which we, too, have pointed out. But the overriding principle is simple: We need to stay home whenever possible.

The weeks ahead will be very difficult. We won’t stop the mounting death toll, but we can slow it down. It’s up to each of us to do our part.