For the 49ers, there should be no price too high for Watson
The Texans should take whatever they want from the 49ers. So long as they send their 25-year-old, threetime Pro Bowl quarterback back to the Bay.
There’s only one thing that’s certain about Deshaun Watson’s situation in Houston — he wants to leave.
By release or trade, it doesn’t matter. He’s fed up with the organization and is trying to use any bit of leverage he has to facilitate his exit.
And while I don’t believe he’ll be traded — the entire NFL system is built so that he won’t be traded — the 49ers can’t operate under that pretense.
If the Texans indeed make Watson available, Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch can’t overthink it. They can’t talk themselves out of Watson for a second time. This is an unprecedented situation that requires an unprecedented response.
They need to go all-in. If that means dangling Nick Bosa, or Fred Warner, or George Kittle or every first-round draft pick they’ll ever have to Houston, so be it. The Niners have to act with reason when it comes to putting together a trade package for Watson, but I’m not sure there’s a cap on reasonability here.
Watson is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. He’s 25 years old. He’s under contract. And in Shanahan’s
offense, he would be an annual preseason MVP favorite. No one can tell me that player isn’t worth everything and a bit more, because that kind of player has never been available via trade in NFL history.
And for a situation like this to possibly come along right as the 49ers need an upgrade at quarterback is the kind of good break the 49ers deserve.
Here’s the truth: The 49ers cannot win the Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo. They can win a lot of games in the regular season, maybe even a few playoff games, too, but to win the big games in this league, you need to be able to throw the ball.
Just look at the NFL’s final four. It’s Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers, and the guy who is likely to finish second in MVP voting, Josh Allen. And I’m not being nitpicky when I say that all four of their teams have major holes. Green Bay, Buffalo, and Kansas City have downright underwhelming defenses.
But it doesn’t matter, because their quarterbacks can put 50 points on you if that’s what is needed.
You could even expand the field to the final eight teams in this year’s playoffs. Those four aforementioned quarterbacks defeated the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards (Drew Brees), two No. 1 overall picks (Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield), and the reigning MVP (Lamar Jackson).
Why didn’t those blue bloods win? Not because their defenses let them down, no. Those losers’ issues this past weekend was the passing game. Brees looked washed-up, Jackson can’t push the ball downfield, Goff and Baker Mayfield made some nice throws, but not the ones they needed in the biggest moments.
Does Garoppolo fit in with the final four crowd? What about the final eight? Because I know Watson could slide into either group with ease.
The Niners are in a situation that’s not too dissimilar to the 2016 Warriors, albeit a year removed from their final-game loss. Like the Warriors, the Niners have to know that the roster crunch was imminent, that the league would catch up to their tactics.
The Warriors saw those things happening and added the kind of player they should have never been able to add — Kevin Durant. But remember, there were plenty of folks out there who thought the Dubs should run it back with Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. We didn’t hear much from those people after a short while.
Garoppolo is Barnes. Watson can be the Niners’ Durant.
Other teams are going to come with big offers. Robert Saleh’s Jets have a ton of first-round picks to offer, including No. 2 overall. The Dolphins can move Tua Tagovailoa and the No. 3 pick they poached from the Texans. The Niners don’t have a young quarterback or a top-10 pick to move, so they’re going to have to get creative.
But the 49ers can’t pass on Watson twice. They took Solomon Thomas with the third pick in the 2017 draft; Watson went 12th to Houston. If the Texans honor his trade request, the likelihood is that Watson will end up in a Shanahan-style, widezone offense. Roughly half the teams in the NFL run them now. And Watson will dominate in it.
He thrived despite playing in Bill O’Brien’s antiquated offense; imagine what happens when he’s in an offense that gives him massive throwing windows? What happens when he’s in an offense that makes Kirk Cousins a $30 million-a-year player?
Rodgers went from washed-up to MVP under Matt LaFleur and his Shanahan offense. There’s truly no ceiling for Watson with Shanahan calling plays.
As such, there’s no ceiling to what the 49ers should be willing to give up to land him if he comes available.
You can always find another pass rusher. Nick Bosa is awesome, but the Niners had a top defense without him this year. Fred Warner is a worthy All-Pro, but would it be the worst thing to trade a middle linebacker — the quarterback of the defense — for an actual quarterback? Plus, Warner is due a big new contract soon.
The Niners are going to have holes on their roster. They were in cap hell before the pandemic. The quarterback is supposed to pick up the slack in those situations, but Garoppolo is the cart, not the horse pulling it.
Watson is the kind of quarterback who can cover up all those holes with his great play, though. With him at the helm, no matter who (within reason) the 49ers move to get him, San Francisco will have a top-five offense. That’s how talented Watson is and how perfect a Shanahan offense is for a player of his skills.
Defense doesn’t win championships. Quarterbacks do. And if the Niners want to win a title — which should be their only goal — they’re lacking in that all-important area.
So whatever the Texans want, give it to them.