Are people on move after virus surge?
With the number of new coronavirus cases in California finally slowing after a devastating holiday season, officials are worried about two factors that could send cases spiking again: lockdown-weary residents and the newly vaccinated letting down their guard.
“Fatigue is setting in,” said San Mateo County Board President David Canepa. “People always try to seek normalcy, but the problem is social gatherings.”
The county recently took a Pacifica yoga studio that has racked up thousands of dollars in fines to court for holding unmasked classes. Santa Clara County has taken legal action against a church for repeatedly holding crowded in-person services. Some Bay Area restaurants, devastated by the economic toll of the pandemic, have continued to serve meals, and patrons have shown up to dine on-site. More quietly, families and friends are gathering, often indoors without masks.
The restlessness comes as California recorded 25,246 new cases Thursday, and the state reported fewer infections in the last week than at any other time since the second week of December. But that positive trend has been darkened by 740 new COVID-19 deaths Thursday, marking a grim new record.
Since the virus landed in California, Golden State residents have shown a tolerance to shelter in place, but only for so long. In March and April, cellphone mobility data shows Californians strayed from home 50% less than normal, but then social distanc
ing here waned in the fall, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. And, according to a study conducted by USC, nearly half of Californians said the first week of January that they had visited a friend, relative or neighbor outside their household in the last week, a figure that hovered closer to 20% through much of April toward the beginning of the pandemic. Roughly 14% said they attended a gathering with 10 or more people within the previous week.
Californians have done a much better job than residents in most other states when it comes to sticking close to home. The IHME analysis shows at the end of 2020, Californians had curbed their mobility more than any other state in the country in December. The closest California has been to pre-pandemic times was at the end of September, after the summer surge, when mobility was 29% below normal.
“This pandemic has really changed people’s lives, and when you get tired of something, you’re looking for something else,” Canepa said. “I think that frustration really bubbles up and then people sort of say, ‘You know what, I can’t do this anymore. I’m craving interaction,’ and then you see all this stuff.”
He and others are also concerned that as more people get the coveted coronavirus vaccine, they will feel a false sense of security. Public health officials have warned that while the vaccinated are largely protected against the deadly disease, they may still be able to transmit it to people who have not been inoculated. And it takes time
for the shot to become effective.
Unlike in New York City where the virus hit early and hard, there are still plenty of Californians who don’t personally know someone who became seriously ill or died from the virus, which has hit Black and Latinx communities particularly hard. The convoluted vaccine rollout has also tested residents’ patience and fueled resentment.
Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said Friday she remains mystified why California saw such a horrific wave of infections this winter.
While she has heard anecdotally that people have lost patience with restrictions on certain activities, she thinks that feeling has been stronger in Southern California and doesn’t believe fatigue fully explains it.
“Something happened in November, and I still don’t understand what it was,” Cody said. “In Santa Clara County, our case rates weren’t as low as I’d have liked, but they were low, and then they took a turn and went straight up. I still don’t understand what fueled that dramatic, sudden rise.”
And some health care workers are cautioning against misplaced blame. Many people face dire choices, between social distancing and putting food on the table, for instance, or between economic ruin and breaking the law.
“I think people want to blame someone for the virus so they stigmatize people who got (it) instead of thinking about (the) impact of poverty on risk,” tweeted Monica Gandhi, a UC San Francisco infectious disease expert who has said that business closures should be paired with financial support for workers.
While there has been some financial assistance, businesses and workers have said the help is far too limited, and some longtime businesses have been forced to shutter permanently, reshaping neighborhoods in the process.
On Friday, the Professional Beauty Federation of California announced that it was joining dozens of wineries and restaurants in suing Gov. Gavin Newsom to reopen hair and nail salons, which, the organization said, are largely owned by women, many of them first-generation immigrants.
It’s not the first time businesses have chafed at lockdowns. The governor has been hit with dozens of lawsuits from angry gym owners, wineries, salons and restaurants. In August, Newsom unveiled a tier system that allowed shuttered salons and shopping centers in even the most restrictive counties to open, and many businesses breathed a sigh of relief. That system has since been discarded. As cases spiked in the fall again, Newsom ordered them closed. But the state has not been forthcoming about how exactly it analyzes the data it uses to make closure decisions, sparking pushback from businesses.
“Our small businesses, less financed and politically connected than multinational corporations, Hollywood and other so-called ‘essential businesses’ have become the go-to sacrificial lambs to the Covid gods,” the group’s counsel, Fred Jones, said in a statement Friday. “This has been ruinous for thousands of our establishments and the livelihood of tens of thousands, without any justifiable basis.”