There’s plenty of mess to sort out
There’s a tie atop the Pac-12 standings, and the team in third place has more losses than the team in fourth.
Some have played 13 conference games; others have played eight. It’s a mess, in other words, and there are only four weeks left in the regular season — not enough time to fully make up the disparity in games played.
With that in mind, here’s a quick primer on the Pac-12 tournament tiebreaker formula, taken directly from the conference:
TOURNAMLNT SLLIS >> The won-lost percentage record of the teams in regular-season conference play will determine tournament seedings
TWO-TLAM TILS >> A. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
B. Each team’s record (won-lost percentage) vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record (won-lost percentage) against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
TRRLL-TLAM (OR MORL) TILS >> A. Results (won-lost percentage) of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams.
B. If more than two teams are still tied, each of the tied team’s record (won-lost percentage) vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings, and then continuing down through the standings, eliminating teams with inferior records, until
one team gains an advantage.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record (won-lost percentage) against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
After one team has an advantage and is seeded, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the multipleteam tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied. KLY TAKLAWAY >> It’s not like the football tiebreaker, where teams with the same number of losses and a one-game difference in wins were considered tied. The basketball formula is based on winning percentage and winning percentage only.
So if USC finishes 15-3 with UCLA next at 14-3, the Trojans would claim the No. 1 seed (even if they split the head-to-head). If Stanford lands on 11-7 and Oregon ends up 9-6, the Cardinal would have the edge: Its winning percentage (61.1) would be a tick higher than Oregon’s (60).
To the power ratings ...
1. USC (15-3 / 9-2)
Last week: 2
Results: won at Stanford 7266, beat UCLA 66-48
Next up: at Washington (Thursday)
Comment: After hammering their rival and claiming a
share of first place, the Trojans would be staring at a trap game Thursday had they drawn any other opponent. But the Huskies don’t have the wherewithal to produce an upset.
2. UCLA (13-4 / 9-2) Last week: 1
Result: lost at USC 66-48
Next up: at Washington State
Comment: Downwardmovea result of the loss itself and the depleted state of the roster: No Cody Riley and no Jalen Hill — on top of no Chris Smith — leaves a vulnerable lineup.
3. Colorado (15-5 / 9-4) Last week: 3
Results: DNP vs. ASU, beat Arizona 82-79
Next up: Beat Oregon State 78-49 Monday, at Stanford (Thursday)
Comment: The grit Evan Battey showed by staying in the game for free throws following the ankle injury perfectly encapsulated CU’s desperate position as a big lead nearly vanished.
4. Stanford (12-7 / 8-5) Last week: 4
Results: lost to USC 72-66, won at Cal 70-55, beat Cal 76-70
Next up: vs Colorado (Thursday)
Comment: One of several signs of improvement: No bad losses.
5. Oregon (10-4 / 5-3) Last week: 6
Results: lost to WSU 74-71, beat Washington 86-74
Next up: at Arizona State (Thursday)
Comment: Combine the rust with the injuries, and the Ducks weren’t equipped to handle WSU. But the pendulum swings this week as Oregon faces an opponent coming off a COVID pause.
6. Utah (8-7 / 5-6)
Last week: 7
Results: DNP vs. ASU, beat Arizona 73-58
Next up: at Cal (Thursday)
Comment: Good enough to beat Stanford, Colorado and Arizona; bad enough to lose to Cal and Washington. The latter existence might be easier for fans to accept without the tease of the former accomplishments.
7. Arizona (13-6 / 7-6) Last week: 5
Results: lost at Utah 73-58 and Colorado 82-79
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: We are tracking the Wildcats’ NET ranking (currently 44th): Given their postseason ban, any February fade could undercut their position and impact Pac-12 resumes on Selection Sunday.
8. Oregon State (10-8 / 6-6) Last week: 9
Results: beat Washington 91-71 and WSU 68-66
Next up: Lost to Colorado 7849, at Arizona (Thursday)
Comment: Somehow, the Beavers have won five out of eight. (No sarcasm intended: We’ve watched and have no idea how this is happening.)
9. Washington State (11-8 / 4-8)
Last week: 10
Results: won at Oregon 74-71, lost at OSU 68-66
Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
Comment: In his second season, Kyle Smith is 7-1 against Washington and the Oregon schools. That will be 8-1 after the Huskies visit at the end of the season.
10. Arizona State (6-8 / 3-5) Last week: 8
Results: DNP at Colorado, DNP at Utah
Next up: vs. Oregon (Thursday)
Comment: Signs of significant COVID disruption: When you’ve played the same number of conference games as Oregon.
11. Washington (3-14 / 2-10) Last week: 11
Results: lost at OSU 91-71 and Oregon 86-74
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
Comment: UW finishes with four in a row at home (L.A. and Bay Area teams) and three in a row on the road (Arizonas and WSU). Best-case scenario is 2-5. Most likely outcome: 1-6.
12. Cal (7-14 / 2-12)
Last week: 12
Results: lost to Stanford 7055 and at Stanford 76-70
Next up: vs. Utah (Thursday)
Comment: Even at 2-12, the Bears aren’t underachieving. They just don’t have the talent to compete regularly. Matt Bradley is a solid player, but he’s not enough ... not nearly enough.