Blueprint for free agency success doesn’t include record contracts
The free agency marketplace for the Raiders has too often been like a swap meet at an abandoned drive-in movie theater. Some items look great until you get them back home, prompting buyer’s remorse at an exorbitant cost.
The real bargains are found upon closer inspection. They cost less, and if they don’t work out, little is lost in the process.
The Raiders would do well to remember the examples of Nelson Agholor and Devontae Booker when the crazy money starts being thrown around when the free agency negotiating period begins on Monday.
Avoid the tempation of the Trent Browns, Lamarcus Joyners, Tyrell Williamses and Carl Nassibs of the world, expecting problems to be solved with huge sums of guaranteed money.
It’s important to remember the Raiders were 8-8, not 4-12. Had they played better defense and scored a few more times in the red zone, they could have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs twice and been a wild-card playoff team.
A .500 record is not a success, but it’s not a dismal failure either. Their approach should reflect that they’re closer to being a good team than a bad one. And good teams don’t treat free agency as if they were playing lawn darts in a blindfold.
Step 1 before free agency begins is to take care of players they believe to be the core of the future and have proved themselves in silver in black. Make a solid offer to Agholor and sign him before free agency begins, or afterward if the money is right. The good news is there are plenty of wide receivers in free agency, making it unlikely Agholor will get huge money.
If some team wants to pay Agholor $12 million per season, say farewell, find another receiver at a more reasonable price and develop Henry Ruggs III as a deep threat. In theory, Ruggs should be that guy anyway.
Booker, who gained 423 yards and whose numbers cratered at the same time the running game went dormant, is a running back and those can always be found either in the free agency bargain bin or the mid-tolate rounds of the draft. You can find guys like him every year at the veteran minimum.
Guard Denzelle Good and defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, the former a waiver claim who was extended once and the latter a September signing in 2018, are known commodities worthy of bringing back at a reasonable rate.
Sign left tackle Kolton Miller to an extension which will be a better deal now than it will be in a year if his career arc continues to climb. Linebacker Nicholas Morrow is the defender who has the closest thing to a good year and may merit a re-up.
Listen closely to the needs of new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley for Tier 2 or Tier 3 free agents who fit his scheme.
Just because the Raiders can’t pressure the quarterback doesn’t necessitate overpaying for a pass rusher. That’s how they wound up with Nassib. Find a fit rather than a body. Don’t play the free agent game as if it’s fantasy football.
There’s no shortage of potential targets, including Shaquil Barrett (Buccaneers), Yannick Ngakoue (Ravens), Carl Lawson (Bengals), Hassan Reddick (Cardinals), Romeo Okwara (Lions) and Leonard Floyd (Rams). It’s entirely possible passing on all of them would be prudent if the money is too crazy.
Keep an eye out for bargains. Jadevon Clowney has all the ability in the world and a rate of pay that goes far beyond his production. But if you can get him on the cheap with an incentive-laden deal because of his struggles, it’s a much better gamble than backing up the truck.
Veterans such as Richard Sherman (49ers) and Patrick Peterson (Cardinals) have some tread on the tires but shouldn’t be paid as if they’re in their prime.
The Raiders have managed to give themselves ample room to operate under a cap set Wednesday at $182.5 million. They’ve got more than $30 million in space per overthecap.com, including moves with Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown that aren’t yet official.
But if the Raiders go the entire first week without signing a free agent, that’s not a bad thing. The Twittersphere would hate it, with a collective groan every time a potential target signs with someone else.
But the Raiders would be better off in the long run. The surest way to being a good team in the regular season is to act like one in the offseason.
JEREMIAH ON RAIDERS AT NO.17>> Brown’s departure via trade to New England opens up the possibility the Raiders could go offense with a tackle in the first round should they stay put at No. 17. There may not be a suitable edge rusher at that spot and GM Mike Mayock told reporters the third and fourth round could be where they look for that position.
Daniel Jeremiah, the NFL Network analyst who succeeded Mayock, was posed the question on a conference call as to whether the Raiders would be better suited to take Virginia Tech offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw or Alabama’s Christian Barmore, a pocket-pushing defensive tackle, at No. 17.
“I would go Darrisaw and I’d be fine with him moving to the right side,” Jeremiah said. “This is an offensive line in a little bit of flux right now, especially after today. To me, Darrisaw, you plug right in. … Barmore is a bit more boom or bust. … I think the Raiders, where they are right now, I think maybe the safer approach would be the smarter approach.”
Right tackle is more of a priority than either guard spot, with Richie Incognito potentially returning on a new contract and the possibility of Good coming back. SAFETIES TAKE A HIT >> With Justin Simmons (Broncos), Marcus Maye (Jets) and Marcus Williams (Saints) all being given the franchise tag, that leaves John Johnson III (Rams) and Anthony Harris (Vikings) as the top safeties available if the Raiders are looking for someone to pair with Johnathan Abram.
The Raiders signed a Rams safety in 2019 for big money, but Joyner, who had played both cornerback and safety, was moved to slot corner. Johnson is more of a true safety but his price went up because of the franchise tags given to Simmons, Maye and Williams. LONG ODDS? >> An intriguing name popped up with the news that Kyle Long, a former standout guard with the Chicago Bears, has committed to returning to the NFL after sitting out last season. A Pro Bowl player in his first three seasons (201315), Long had a laundry list of physical ailments and played in 30 of 64 games from 2016 through 2019.
The son of former Raiders defensive lineman Howie Long would be worth a look if the price was right, particularly with Incognito scheduled for free agency and Gabe Jackson expected to join him.