Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, Megan Thee Stallion should win big
“Music’s Biggest Night” is going to look very different this year.
Notably, there will be no arena filled with fabulously dressed people as the trophies are handed out — er, mailed out? — from the 63rd annual Grammy Awards show in Los Angeles. Also, expect to see acceptance speeches and so much other content streamed via video, just like what happened during last month’s Golden Globes.
COVID-19 precautions will also impact the show’s signature star-studded collaborations and performances, which traditionally run contrary to social distancing protocol. Our hunch is that they’ll be prerecorded, perhaps using split-screen technology, if they happen at all.
Still, awards will be given out — and that’s the whole reason why this event got its start way back in 1959, even though that point has somehow gotten lost over the years as the performances have overshadowed the awards themselves.
But maybe it’s time for a comeback in 2021. So, let’s focus our attention on the categories and try to predict who will be the big winners when the Grammy ceremony kicks off 5 p.m. Sunday on CBS.
There are dozens of intriguing contests in the mix, but we’ll focus on the four so-called “general field” categories (where artists of all different genres compete) and then briefly touch upon a few others.
Buckle up. Here we go.
Record of the year
NOMINEES » “Black Parade,” Beyoncé; “Colors,” Black Pumas; “Rockstar,” DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch; “Say So,” Doja Cat, “Everything I Wanted,” Billie Eilish; “Don’t Start Now,” Dua Lipa; “Circles,” Post Malone; “Savage,” Megan Thee Stallion featuring Beyoncé BREAKDOWN » Beyoncé is a regular in this category — as well as, we realize, so many others. Yet her two nods in 2021 bring her career total to seven, tying her with Ol’ Blue Eyes Frank Sinatra for the most of all time. Unfortunately, nominations haven’t translated to victories for Queen Bey in this category — not even once. That could definitely change this year, as Beyoncé has not one but two contenders in the mix.
Yet, she’ll face mighty competition from “Rockstar,” DaBaby and Roddy Ricch’s stirring offering that registered even more solidly with listeners via its “Black Lives Matter Remix,” as well as Doja Cat’s glamorous pop offering “Say So” and the Post Malone soft-rock jam “Circles.”
Then there’s Billie Eilish, who won this category as part of an incredibly rare general field sweep — record, album and song of the year plus best new artist — in 2020. Her popularity and talent has her poised for another big night here.
PREDICTION » “Black Parade,” Beyoncé
Song of the year (songwriters)
NOMINEES » “Black Parade,” Denisia Andrews, Beyoncé, Stephen Bray, Shawn Carter, Brittany Coney, Derek James Dixie, Akil King, Kim “Kaydence” Krysiuk and Rickie “Caso” Tice (performed by Beyoncé); “The Box,” Larrance Dopson, Samuel Gloade, Rodrick Moore, Adarius Moragne, Eric Sloan and Khirye Anthony Tyler (performed by Roddy Ricch); “Cardigan,” Aaron Dessner and Taylor Swift (performed by Swift); “Circles” Louis Bell, Adam Feeney, Kaan Gunesberk, Austin Post and Billy Walsh (performed by Post Malone); “Don’t Start Now,” Caroline Ailin, Ian Kirkpatrick, Dua Lipa and Emily Warren (performed by Dua Lipa); “Everything I Wanted,” Billie Eilish O’Connell and Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish); “I Can’t Breathe,” Dernst Emile II, H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas (performed by H.E.R.); “If the World Was Ending,” Julia Michaels and JP Saxe (performed by JP Saxe featuring Julia Michaels)
BREAKDOWN » We’d love to see Vallejo native H.E.R. nab the prize for “I Can’t Breathe,” which is the most stunning number in this prestigious bunch, but the field is probably just too crowded with bigger hits for the Vallejo talent to emerge victorious. The same fate likely awaits the endearing “If the World Was Ending.”
But we could see any of the other five nominees taking the title. It probably breaks down to a battle between three of the most popular artists on the planet — Beyoncé, Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish.
Only one of those three has yet to win this award — despite being nominated in this category more times than any other female artist — so we’re predicting that it’s finally her time.
PREDICTION » “Cardigan,” Aaron Dessner and Taylor Swift
Album of the year
NOMINEES » “Chilombo,” Jhené Aiko; “Black Pumas” (deluxe edition), Black Pumas; “Everyday Life,” Coldplay; “Djesse Vol. 3,” Jacob Collier; “Women in Music Pt. III,” Haim; “Future Nostalgia,” Dua Lipa; “Hollywood’s Bleeding,” Post Malone; “Folklore,” Taylor Swift BREAKDOWN » This is probably the least impressive batch of nominees among the four general field categories — and not just because Coldplay is in the mix. The list here speaks volumes about the continuing decline in importance of the full-length album format in popular music, now that singles (and even short snippets posted on social media) rule the show. Yet, old-school album devotees (including this writer) continue to hold this category up as the most important of the night.
We can probably cross three nominees off the list right at the start. Haim is great, but this new album isn’t nearly as good as their first two. Jacob Collier is very talented, but how many Grammy voters have really listened to his album? And Coldplay would stand a great chance of winning — if this were 2003.
Jhené Aiko, Black Pumas and Dua Lipa are better positioned, but still remain long shots.
Any way you slice it, this one likely breaks down to Post Malone vs. Taylor Swift — with convincing cases to be made on both sides. A Swift victory, however, would be historic, making her the first woman, and fourth artist overall (along with Frank Sinatra, Stevie Wonder and Paul Simon), to win album of the year three times.
PREDICTION » “Folklore,” Taylor Swift
Best new artist
NOMINEES » Ingrid Andress, Phoebe Bridgers, Chika, Noah Cyrus, D Smoke, Doja Cat, Kaytranada, Megan Thee Stallion
BREAKDOWN » This has been the most fascinating of all Grammy categories over the decades, resulting in wins for everyone from the Beatles and Mariah Carey to Taste of Honey and, lest we forget, Milli Vanilli.
Who will follow in those footsteps at the 63rd annual Grammys? It’s so hard to say, because voters don’t always go for the most popular and bestselling acts here. So, that might open the door for an up-and-comer like Chika or Ingrid Andress to nab the prize.
But we don’t think that will happen. Instead, it should boil down to a race between three well-established acts — critical fave Phoebe Bridgers, rising popmusic star Doja Cat and dynamic hip-hop talent Megan Thee Stallion, who just has so much momentum behind her right now.
PREDICTION » Megan Thee Stallion
10 more predictions
BEST RAP ALBUM » On his 14th try, Nas finally wins his first Grammy for “King’s Disease.”
ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM » Tame Impala’s “The Slow Rush” wins in one of the mostly hotly contested categories of the evening, besting releases from Fiona Apple, Phoebe Bridgers and Brittany Howard, among others.
POP VOCAL ALBUM » By contrast, this might be the safest bet of the evening — Taylor Swift’s “Folklore.”
BEST RAP PERFORMANCE » Or maybe this one is one is even safer — “Savage” by Megan Thee Stallion featuring Beyoncé.
BEST CONTEMPORARY CHRISTIAN MUSIC PERFORMANCE/ SONG » “The Blessing,” from Kari Jobe, Cody Carnes and Elevation Worship, was nothing short of a worldwide phenomenon in 2020.
BEST COUNTRY SOLO PERFORMANCE » “Bluebird” — because there seems to be some sort of a hidden (but well warranted) law that says Miranda Lambert must win at least one category at every award show.
BEST R&B PERFORMANCE » Beyoncé picks up another trophy for “Black Parade.”
BEST IMPROVISED JAZZ SOLO (AND) BEST JAZZ INSTRUMENTAL ALBUM » The great Chick Corea, who died Feb. 9 at the age of 79, adds two more Grammys to his already staggeringly impressive collection. Predicting wins for “All Blues” and “Trilogy 2” (with Christian McBride and Brian Blade), respectively.
BEST AMERICAN ROOTS PERFORMANCE » The late great John Prine receives well-earned recognition for “I Remember Everything,” which was reportedly the final song he recorded before dying in April 2020 at the age of 73. It also happens to be the best new song, from any genre, we heard in 2020.