Opinions are varied on possible 49ers’ pick Lance, who played just one game last season
This is the last of three installments detailing insight from NFL experts on probable quarterback targets for the 49ers in Thursday’s draft. Today: Trey Lance.
No one knows quite what to say about Trey Lance, at least not with the definitive confidence of other top quarterbacks in this week’s draft.
Experts are “intrigued.” He’s “interesting” but there’s “not enough information” on the North Dakota State quarterback. He’s a “risk,” as really are all other 258 draft picks.
If the 49ers go for the 20-year-old Lance, they’ll likely be skipping Alabama national champion Mac Jones and Ohio State phenom Justin Fields, once Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson are presumably
drafted first by the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets.
To help 49ers’ fans with surveillance on Lance, here is a panel of NFL experts offering their foresight:
The offensive coach view
STEVE MARIUCCI >> Mariucci is the 49ers’ fourth-winningest coach (5739 from 1997-2002). He’s coached Hall of Fame quarterbacks Brett Favre and Steve Young. Mariucci is in his 16th year as a NFL Network analyst.
“I’d be surprised if it’s Trey Lance, unless they decide to go with Jimmy G for another year. If they are (keeping Garoppolo, as advertised), any of them could fit. If not, and somebody wants him and grabs Jimmy for a second-round pick, Trey Lance has the most work to do to start in the NFL. Not only did he not play last year (other than one game), he played at another level (FCS) and has the most catching up to do. It would benefit him a lot to sit and watch a veteran guy. All of these quarterbacks would benefit from that.”
The defensive coach view
WADE PHILLIPS >> Phillips faced Shanahan’s 49ers as the Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator from 2017-19 and he’s coached NFL defenses since 1976, including headcoaching stints with Denver, Dallas and Houston.
“(Shanahan) had (Robert Griffin III) at Washington, so I’m thinking it’s kind of a similar deal there. The guy could really run. RG3 couldn’t throw it quite well enough. You don’t have enough information on Lance but I know he can run it. He ran it 30 times a game or something.
“RG3 was pretty darn good the first year he had him, then he got hurt. Kyle, that offense, they can play any kind of quarterback because he’s a good coach. He’ll tailor the things that they can do well.”
The game-film view
GREG COSELL >> Cosell is senior producer at NFL Films and an analyst for ESPN’s NFL Matchup show.
“Lance was not a volume thrower because of the offense he was in. They didn’t have to drop him back 40 times a game (to pass) by choice. He ran a lot, some by design.”
The general manager view
MARK DOMINIK >> Dominik worked in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ personnel department from 1997-2013, overlapping with John Lynch’s playing days and eventually serving as the Bucs’ GM for five years. He hosts a Sirius/XM NFL Radio show Fridays.
“Trey Lance is the least accurate of the three but Josh Allen has proven to a lot of people that maybe accuracy can be developed more than we realized. Trey Lance brings that size, that girth where you can extend the play in a Ben Roethelisberger body, so if you get hit, you can stay up and continue to play.”
The scout view
GILBRANDT>> Brandt entered the Pro Football Hall of Fame two years ago. He became a full-time scout with the 49ers in 1958-59 before 29 years in the Dallas Cowboys’ personnel department. He is a weeknight host on SiriusXM NFL Radio.
“It’s an interesting situation. He grew up in Minnnestoa, won a state championship and (Minnesota didn’t recruit him as a quarterback; thought he was a defensive back, a safety.
“I think he’s the most interesting of these quarterbacks as to what his future in the league is or isn’t going to be.”
The quarterback view
JEFF GARCIA >> Garcia, by way of San Jose State and the Canadian Football League, began his 11-year NFL career with the 49ers from (1999-2003). He’s been a NBC Sports Bay Area analyst since 2017.
“I’m very intrigued by the young man. But I, too, don’t feel like we’ve seen enough out of him. He’s got prototypical great size, great athletic ability, can run, seems like a great decision-maker. He had a heck of year statistically what could do with his arms and legs. But against lesser competition at a smaller school level.
“And not knowing how that would transition and having a year off in between competitive environments, is he worthy of being a No. 3 pick? If you’re looking at that style of quarterback, I’m going to go with (Fields), the guy who’s played in bigger games, bigger stage, more starts and has unbelievable statistics and the physical toughness.”
The college football view
KIRK HERBSTREIT >> Herbstreit is a fixture on ESPN’s “College GameDay” and has split time as a game analyst during his 25 years at the network. He played quarterback at Ohio State from 1989-92.
“I just think because he wasn’t able to play a year ago, it would be ideal for him to go somewhere where he just gets a chance to kind of learn how to be a pro. Learn under a guy that’s not intimidated or afraid of him. Learn from an offensive coordinator, head coach and quarterback that are helping him kind of move throughout the year and grow. and then handing the reins and let him go.
“But this guy is one of the most gracious people that I spoke to this entire year in college football. Just a wonderful humble and engaging guy.”
The draftniks view
MEL KIPER JR., DANIEL JEREMIAH >> Kiper has led ESPN’s NFL draft analysis since 1984. Jeremiah is in his 10th year at NFL Network after scouting for the Ravens, Browns and Eagles.
Kiper: “When you have 17 starts and you’re coming from the I-AA level, there’s some risk there with (North Dakota State’s) Trey Lance. Mac Jones only has 17 starts, doesn’t have a tremendous amount of overall natural ability to make things happen with his legs, and if a play breaks down, he’s not going to do it. But the greatest of all-time didn’t have to do that in Tom Brady.”
Jeremiah: “Even with knowing how much they value the things that Mac is good at, I would still take Trey Lance, because I think Trey is going to eventually get to the point where he can deliver all the things that Mac can deliver in terms of being able to process very quickly, make great decisions, and you’re going to be able to do more with him in terms of getting him on the move. Accuracy-wise, he trails Mac Jones, but there are some mechanical things you can fix with him, much like we saw with Josh Allen, and you could see Trey Lance get to that level.”
The skinny on Lance
• Led North Dakota State to the FCS national championship his lone full season, in 2019, and he did so with astonishing stats. He passed for 28 touchdowns with no interceptions en route to 2,786 yards; he ran for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns.
• He played only one game last fall because of NDSU’s opt-out schedule. Lance improved to 17-0 as a NDSU starter with that win over Central Arkansas (149 passing yards, two TDs; 143 rushing yards, two TDs). He never faced FBS competition in college.
• First freshman to win the FCS’ Walter Payton Award, which the 49ers’ Garoppolo won in 2013 at Eastern Illinois.
• Wasn’t heavily recruited out of Marshall High (150 miles southwest of Minneapolis) and was asked by the University of Minnesota to play safety.
• Would be second North Dakota State Bison to go in the draft’s topthree (Carson Wentz, No. 2 in 2016 to Philadelphia). Only five quarterbacks from non-FBS schools have been drafted in the first round since 1979.
• His father, Carlton, played defensive back in training camp with the 1994 49ers, who went on to win the franchise’s most recent Lombardi Trophy.
• Trey Lance, after his initial pro day March 12: “Whatever organization I go to, they know what they’re going to get with me, and I’m going be absolutely as ready as I possibly can Week 1 to go. I’m a competitor, first and foremost, so I’m going to compete for that spot regardless of where I’m at or what the situation is.”