Recall effort moves forward
Backers who want to remove the governor have enough valid signatures to qualify for ballot
Backers of an effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom have turned in enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, the Secretary of State’s office confirmed Monday, clearing the way for voters in the Golden State to decide whether to remove a governor from office for only the second time in California history.
While the likelihood of a recall election has been all but a given for weeks, California Secretary of State Shirley Weber launched the campaign in earnest by announcing her office had verified 1,626,042 signatures reported by counties across the state, just over 130,000 more than needed. Republicans angered by the governor’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic fueled the effort and celebrated Monday’s news as a major victory in their ongoing long-shot quest to unseat one of the country’s leading progressive politicians.
The announcement set in motion what promises to be a political spectacle as everyone from long-frustrated Republicans to fringe celebrities — and potential Democratic challengers — weigh their chances to follow Arnold Schwarzenegger’s path to power in 2003 when voters ousted Gov. Gray Davis.
Newsom, who would otherwise face reelection next year, wasted no time assailing his opponents. In an emailed fundraising pitch Monday, he said recalling him “would mean turning the state over to anti-mask, anti-vaxx, pro
Trump extremists.”
“This Republican recall threatens our values and seeks to undo the important progress we’ve made — from fighting COVID, to helping struggling families, protecting our environment, and passing commonsense gun violence solutions,” the governor said on Twitter.
California governors have frequently been targeted by recall drives — Newsom has faced six. But only once before has one qualified for the ballot, when Davis, a largely unpopular Democrat, was replaced by action hero Schwarzenegger as the state was mired in rolling blackouts and budget cuts.
The current effort benefited from extended time to gather signatures due to the pandemic and from mounting frustration among parents over California’s sluggish school reopening.
“The people of California have done what the politicians thought would be impossible,” said Orrin Heatlie, the lead proponent of the Recall Gavin Newsom campaign and founder of the California Patriot Coalition. “Our work is just beginning. Now the real campaign is about to commence.”
It’s still uncertain exactly when the election will take place. County election officials have until Thursday to finish verifying signatures and then, after a few other steps, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis is likely to call for an election around November. Voters would be asked two questions: first, whether they want to get rid of Newsom, and second, whom they want to replace him. If a majority of voters say they want to oust Newsom, then the candidate with the most votes on the second question becomes the next governor.
So far, several Republicans have said they plan to challenge Newsom, including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox, whom Newsom handily defeated for governor in 2018. Faulconer said Monday that “Californians from all walks of life are seizing this historic opportunity to demand change,” while Cox said, “We are going to shake up Sacramento and take California in a new direction.”
More intriguing, former Olympian turned realityTV icon Caitlyn Jenner, a Republican and transgender advocate, filed paperwork to join the race on Friday. And fringe candidates like adult film star Mary Carey are expected to fill the ballot, as well. Newsom said in his fundraising email that Jenner is running “with the help of Donald Trump’s campaign manager.”
There’s also the possibility that another Democrat could jump into the race, which would complicate Newsom’s efforts to hang onto his job.
The Secretary of State’s office did not provide a party breakdown of those who signed recall petitions. But polling has suggested the support is chiefly among Republicans in heavily Democratic California.
A Public Policy Institute of California poll last month found 79% of Republicans support the recall compared with 42% of independents and 15% of Democrats, and that overall, 56% of likely voters would vote against removing Newsom from office while 40% would vote to oust him. More than half of Californians approve of his job performance, and most residents say the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is in the past, it found.
But the recall effort clearly has some support from Democrats. Paul Hainsworth, a technology chief executive in Berkeley, said Saturday on Twitter that he’s a Democrat supporting the recall because of Newsom’s “failed leadership on school reopening.”
The recall has intense support in conservative pockets, particularly in the northernmost reaches of the state, the Central Valley and in the Sierra foothills. Support is low in the more liberal Bay Area, where voters widely backed Newsom’s election for governor. Heatlie, who retired as a sergeant with the Yolo County Sheriff’s Office, and the group Rescue California, led by former California GOP chair Tom Del Beccaro, have helped propel the campaign.
Many political analysts say that the recall effort is unlikely to pose a major threat to the sitting governor because opposition is fading as more Californians are vaccinated and the state starts to reopen.
Larry Gerston, a political science professor emeritus at San Jose State University who wrote a book on the successful 2003 Gray Davis recall effort, told this news organization that if life returns to some semblance of normal, “I think a lot of the anger dissipates.”
Gerston added that Jenner’s entry into the race won’t likely alter the recall landscape, as Schwarzenegger’s did.
“Assuming the polls are correct, there’s no reason for a Democrat to stick his or her neck out,” Gerston said.
But, Gerston also warned, Newsom will have to avoid more gaffes such as the infamous French Laundry dinner where the governor was caught dining with a group at a swanky Napa Valley restaurant in the middle of the pandemic despite telling residents to stay home and avoid unnecessary contact with other households.
Newsom hasn’t spent much time addressing the recall, focusing on the pandemic and drought conditions in recent months. But he acknowledged to CNN in March that he was “worried about it” and “taking it seriously.”