Lowest case rate in U.S.? California
Experts: Turnaround due to continued vaccine rollout, masks, immunity from past surges
After a winter of misery during the worst pandemic in a century, California is now seeing a major surge of hope this spring.
Buoyed by a steady pace of vaccinations and the immunity of people who already have had the disease, California now has the lowest rate of COVID-19 cases anywhere in the United States.
“The worst of it is behind us,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco.
California’s rate of 33 cases per 100,000 people Wednesday morning was less than a third of the U.S. average of 116 cases. By comparison, Texas had more than double California’s rate, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while Illinois and New York were four times higher, Florida five times and Michigan 10 times.
Meanwhile, California’s positive test rate also is the lowest of any state — just 0.9% of people, or fewer than 1 in 100 who were tested for COVID-19 in the past week, had the disease. That’s a quarter of the national average and down from 14% statewide four months ago.
“It’s fabulous. It’s just outstanding,” said
Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor emeritus of public health at UC Berkeley. “It’s been a remarkable few weeks.”
Deaths and serious illness, which once overwhelmed hospitals, are in sustained retreat. The number of people who are dying each day in California from COVID-19 has fallen 90% since the peak in January. There were 65 deaths statewide on Wednesday, down from 684 on Jan. 5. Hospitalizations have fallen 91% statewide over the same time.
Perhaps most remarkable, California’s most populous county, Los Angeles, which was a national hotbed of COVID-19 sickness in December and January, is on the cusp of moving into the yellow tier under California’s system — reserved for counties with the lowest case rates — as soon as next week, possibly joined by San Francisco, Marin and others. Disneyland, a symbol of the Golden State that was closed for more than a year, reopens Friday.
The trend isn’t fully appreciated yet by the public and the media, say some experts.
“We’ve got to get out the good news and not always with ‘but this’ or ‘but that,’ ” said Dr. Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at UC San Francisco. “It’s a success story.”
To be sure, the pandemic isn’t over. Michigan struggled recently with a jump in cases. And Oregon this week began tightening rules for restaurants in Portland and other cities after its cases rose.
But Gandhi said it’s unlikely that California will see a new surge like Oregon or other states.
She and other experts say California’s fortunes have turned around for three main reasons, all of which continue to protect the state from new spikes.
First are vaccines. After federal delivery of vaccines has increased with more streamlined systems, every day a larger number of Americans are getting vaccinated. On Tuesday, 337,000 more Californians became vaccinated. Overall, 61% of adults 18 and older in California — 18.5 million people — have received at least one dose, according to the CDC. And that number is growing by 1% every day. More important: 87% of people over age 65 in California have received at least one dose, the group that was most at risk of dying.
“You can mask and social distance until the cows come home,” Gandhi said. “But the only way to get out of pandemic is to create immunity in the population to that pathogen. Because of mass vaccination rates, we are going to stay at low case rates.”
The second big reason for California’s reversal is natural immunity. Officially, 3.6 million people have gotten COVID-19 in California since the pandemic began 14 months ago. But in some communities, particularly in Southern California, that number is much higher. When people survive the disease, they build up antibodies and T cells that help fight off future infections. That resistance lasts at least eight months, research shows, and probably longer. California had more infections than other states before and now is better protected.
Third is the lack of variants. Other states, such as Michigan, have been hard hit by the so-called “U.K. variant” of COVID-19, which is 50% to 70% more contagious than the main strain. But California hasn’t seen a significant outbreak of that type. Instead, two “West Coast” variants, which are only about 20% more contagious, prevailed. Researchers aren’t sure why, although they say Californians’ general willingness to wear masks, wash their hands, social distance and follow the state’s tier rules for business reopenings has helped.
“The West Coast variants seem to be outcompeting other strains,” Swartzberg said, urging people to remain vigilant. “Why that is is beyond me, but that seems to be happening so far.”
What could go wrong? “We have two big giant international airports — SF and LA — who are flying people in from all over the world,” Rutherford said.
“I worry about variants. As each day goes by and more and more people are vaccinated, the concern goes down.”
Rutherford said that by June 15, the day that Gov. Gavin Newsom said he will drop the tier system and limits on gatherings, he expects that California will reach herd immunity of 70% to 80% of the population having been vaccinated or having natural immunity from previously suffering from COVID-19.
That will be a political boost to Newsom as he faces a recall election, political experts say.
“COVID has become the bull’s-eye on him,” said Larry Gerston, a professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University who is writing a book about the pandemic and the recall. “To the extent cases are dropping, that will only help him. It means the state is returning to normal activities. Kids are going back to school. Businesses are reopening. It’s a perfect storm in reverse, at least the way things are going today.”