Lower-round quarterbacks facing long odds to make it
The five teams that took quarterbacks in the first round of the NFL draft head into the offseason program full of optimism that they have found the franchise cornerstone that will lead to great success for the next decade.
History indicates that at least a couple of those teams will be looking for new answers sooner than they hoped with the hit rate on successful firstround quarterbacks being no better than a coin toss, something the New York Jets know all too well after taking Zach Wilson second overall just three years after making Sam Darnold the third overall pick.
The chances that the five teams that selected quarterbacks after round one found a keeper is considerably smaller based on the recent track records of those picks.
The days of first-round snubs going on to starring careers such as Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, or becoming solid long-term starters such as Matt Hasselbeck, Trent Green and Mark Brunell are a thing of the past.
Since a stretch in 201112 when Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins and Colin Kaepernick fashioned successful careers after being passed over in round one, only a rare few have made it since.
Of the 70 quarterbacks taken after round 1 from 2013-20, including 26 who went in rounds two through four, only Dak Prescott, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo have become successful starters.
The jury is still out on a few others such as Jalen Hurts, picked in the second round last year by Philadelphia, and 2019 secondrounder Drew Lock in Denver, but that history doesn’t bode well for this year’s class.
Five quarterbacks were drafted after the first round this year, matching the fewest taken after round one in the common draft era that started in 1967. As more teams elevate quarterbacks up their draft boards to take them in the first round, the quality in the later rounds has dropped.
There was speculation that a record-tying six quarterbacks could go in the first round this year with Trevor Lawrence, Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones near locks. The next to go off the board ended up being Florida’s Kyle Trask, who went to Tampa Bay with the final pick of the second round.
Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond and Stanford’s Davis Mills then went to Minnesota and Houston, respectively, with back-to-back picks early in the third round, Notre Dame’s Ian Book went to New Orleans in the fourth and Indianapolis took Sam Ehlinger out of Texas in the sixth round.
With the possible exception of Mills who could be rushed into play depending on the status of Deshaun Watson with the Texans, the other young quarterbacks are behind entrenched veterans and will be given time to develop.
AMAZON TO TAKE OVER “THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL” EARLY >>
Amazon Prime Video will become the exclusive home of the NFL’s “Thursday Night Football” package a year earlier than originally anticipated.
Amazon and the league announced that Prime Video will take over the entire package in 2022, which will make it an 11-season deal through 2032. It was originally supposed to begin in 2023 when the league’s new media rights deals kick in. This is the first time a streaming service has had the full rights to an NFL package.
BILLS PICK UP ALLEN, EDMUNDS FIFTH-YEAR CONTRACT OPTIONS >> Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds are staying around for at least two more seasons.
The Bills exercised the fifth-year options of both players’ contracts and retained the 2018 first-round draft picks through the 2022 season. The move comes at a combined price of about $36 million, with Allen set to make nearly $23 million in his final year.
The fifth year of the contracts is guaranteed, though the Bills can renegotiate the deals.
COWBOYS DECLINE VANDER ESCH OPTION >> The Dallas Cowboys declined the fifthyear option on linebacker Leighton Vander Esch’s rookie contract.
Vander Esch had a strong rookie season after the Cowboys drafted him 19th overall in 2018. But injuries limited him to 19 games the past two years, most notably the revelation that the former Boise State player has always had spinal stenosis, a narrowing of the spinal column that makes neck injuries more risky.
FALCONS PICK UP RIDLEY’S OPTION>> The Atlanta Falcons picked up receiver Calvin Ridley’s fifth-year option, meaning he will make $11.1 million in 2022 and be in line for a long-term deal.
The team had no announcement on the option for tight end Hayden Hurst, presumably meaning he will become a free agent after the upcoming season. Hurst was a 2018 first-round pick of Baltimore who was traded to Atlanta before last season.