Stats say A’s have worst defense, but numbers don’t tell whole story
The Oakland A’s defense is lined with gold and platinum, but one set of numbers says it’s not worth a lump of coal.
Four gold gloves and two platinum gloves belong to first baseman Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. Center fielder Ramón Laureano can zap runs and runners with one laser throw and Sean Murphy is known to steal a couple strikes behind the plate. Yet, the A’s rank dead last in MLB with negative-28 defensive runs saved, according to the Fielding Bible and negative-30 DRS per FanGraphs.
“If you look at some of the other metrics out there, it would suggest different,” manager Bob Melvin said. “I don’t think we’re a bottom-third defensive team. It feels a little bit off to me, yet if that’s what they say, that’s what they say. But it doesn’t feel like that to me.”
If you’ve seen Laureano rob home runs at the wall and collect his three assists and Chapman and Olson turn difficult double plays, it’d seem their play would at the very least lift the A’s up from the bottom of the barrel. In fact, the A’s .985 fielding percentage entering Tuesday was tied for fifth-highest in the majors and only five teams had committed fewer than their 31 fielding errors.
Defensive runs saved is a statistic that calculates how many runs a team or player at a specific position saves based on an algorithm that analyses Baseball Info Solutions data that charts where each ball is hit to determine the difficulty of a defensive play compared to the league average. The Rays lead the majors with 49 runs
saved, and it’s not even close. The Mets are second with 36 runs saved by their defense. In all, 11 teams have negative totals, and interestingly, the A’s are the only division leader in that group.
The DRS statistic is similar to Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), which measures the same defensive impact with a slightly different formula.
According to the Fielding Bible’s breakdown per position, Chapman’s four defensive runs saved is the only area in which the A’s are earning any DRS. Olson, even, is at negative-2, per Fielding Bible.
The worst positions are
those typically occupied by the (somewhat) newer A’s Jed Lowrie at second base and Elvis Andrus at shortstop. Second base collected a negative-9 DRS and shortstop a negative-8 DRS. The pitcher’s spot is also one of the team’s worst with a negative-8 DRS. Right field, which is mostly a platoon between Stephen Piscotty and Seth Brown, has a negative-3 DRS.
Left field, where Mark Canha and Tony Kemp typically play, and center field, where Laureano plays, both have zero DRS and the catcher’s position has a negative-1 DRS.
Interestingly, the A’s -6.3 UZR is not as bad, ranking 25th in MLB. Some individual defensive measurements are contributing to the lack of runs saved, particularly the double plays turned and arm strength across the board. The A’s have a negative-2 runs saved on the double play opportunity and negative-2 runs saved on arm strength — the latter is a surprising one given Laureano and Chapman’s arm strength from their positions.
That doesn’t paint the prettiest picture, but Melvin mentioned some other defensive numbers that indicate otherwise.
Statcast’s breakdown doesn’t paint as bleak a picture, but has Olson as a below-average defensive first baseman. Statcast evaluates individual defensive contributions using Outs Above Average, an algorithm that determines how many more outs a player can create above the average at each position.
That’s where Chapman’s contributions shine most; he has a 10 OAA, which ranks second-most among any player in baseball at any position.
The A’s other defensive standouts are left fielder Mark Canha, who has 4 OAA and outfielder Brown, who has 3 OAA. Kemp as a left fielder, Laureano and Lowrie at second have zero OAA, so they are average. Andrus at shortstop has negative-1 OAA, Olson and Piscotty in right field with negative-3 OAA are the only qualified A’s below average. All other players haven’t contributed enough plays to qualify.