Lottery may sway team’s fortunes
First-round pick from deal with Minnesota holds much intrigue
Depending on how the NBA draft lottery ping-pong balls bounce, the Warriors today will find out whether they have one or two picks in the top half of the draft.
After the Warriors lost in the second round of the play-in tournament and missed the playoffs by a game, Golden State’s own pick is slotted at No. 14, and has
just a 2.4% chance of moving up into the top four of the draft.
But the drama surrounds Minnesota’s pick, currently slotted at No. 6. The Warriors own a first-round pick from Minnesota, either a top-three protected pick this year or an unprotected pick next year, be
cause of the 2020 trade that sent D’Angelo Russell to the Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins. If the Timberwolves’ pick lands outside the top three — which
has a 72.4% chance of happening — then the Warriors get the pick. If it ends up in the top three, the pick conveys next year.
Warriors president and COO Rick Welts will represent the organization at the lottery, his final public act before stepping down from his role. The Warriors hope his presence is a lucky charm.
Aside from Golden State’s own pick defying the 0.5% odds and jumping to No. 1, the best-case scenario is that Minnesota’s pick lands at No. 4, giving the Warriors a chance to take one of the draft’s premier talents such as Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham, USC’s Evan Mobley, Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs or G League Ignite’s Jalen Green. But there’s just a 9.6% chance of that happening.
Here’s the full breakdown of the odds attached to the Timberwolves’ pick: No. 1: 9.0%
No. 2: 9.2%
No. 3: 9.4%
No. 4: 9.6%
No. 5: 0%
No. 6: 8.6%
No. 7: 29.7%
No. 8: 20.6%
No. 9: 3.8%
No. 10: 0.2%
The Warriors have not improved their draft position since 1995, when they moved up four spots from fifth to first and selected Joe Smith. Two seasons ago, after winning a league-worst 15 games, they moved down from the first pick to the second overall pick, which they used to select center James Wiseman.
Odds are that Minnesota’s pick lands at No. 7 or 8. While that won’t allow Golden State to draft one of the consensus top five players, it will give them a chance to pick from the next tier of prospects — players such as Florida State’s Scottie Barnes, Duke’s Jalen Johnson, Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert, Michigan’s Franz Wagner and Baylor’s Davion Mitchell.
As NBA draft insider Chad Ford recently explained on the “Locked On Warriors” podcast, Barnes is the “closest thing to Draymond Green since Draymond Green.” He is a versatile, unselfish wing who, at 6-foot-9 and 227 pounds, averaged 5.9 assists last year for the Seminoles. Though his jumper is shaky, he’d fit Golden State’s system, predicated on ball movement and switching on defense. But he’s climbing draft boards, and some front offices even have him in their top five. Barnes falling past the
sixth or seventh pick seems unlikely.
During his end-of-season news conference, GM Bob Myers said he wants to add playmaking and shooting. Players such as Kispert (44% 3-point shooter), Wagner (34% 3-point shooter, 3.0 assists per game) and Mitchell (44.7% 3-point shooter, 5.5 assists per game) would help address that need.
The worst-case scenario would either be seeing the pickslidetoNo.9or10,or jump into the top three and not convey for another year.
Keeping the pick, even that low, would give Golden State two selections and two more assets to use during this critical offseason.
Not getting the pick this year would result in acquiring Minnesota’s unprotected pick next season. Depending on if the young Timberwolves can build upon a strong finish last season, that pick will either be very valuable or somewhere closer to where the Warriors’ pick is this season. But unprotected picks are scarce and valuable on the trade market.
Also, having one pick instead of two would relieve the numbers crunch facing a roster already with 13 players under contract for next season, and create room for another veteran.
Concerns about whether the Warriors should add one or even two rookies to a roster aiming to contend next season are wellfounded, but first-round picks can also be used in trades to acquire more experienced players ready to help now. Having more of them only helps.
There’s a 50.3% chance that Minnesota’s pick conveys to the Warriors at No. 7 or 8, and a 97.6% chance that Golden State’s own pick remains at No. 14. Two picks in the top 14 would be helpful. The Warriors today will know what they have, and then the work begins.