Climbing virus rate has state unworried
Analysis finds new infections up 9% statewide since June 15
Two weeks since California reopened after 15 months of pandemic restrictions, COVID-19 infections are again on the rise, driven by a highly contagious variant of the coronavirus spreading globally, but remain manageable thanks to one of the highest state vaccination rates in the country.
The approaching Independence Day holiday has a much different feel in the Golden State than a year ago,when Gov. Gavin Newsom and health officials around the state pleaded in vain for fellow Californians to forgo July 4 parties with others outside their households.
This year, the plea is for more Californians to get vaccinated against the disease and for the unvaccinated — including children younger than 12 who aren’t yet authorized for the shots — to keep wearing masks in indoor public places where the virus can spread easily.
“As a father and pediatrician, I urge all eligible Californians to get vaccinated to not only protect themselves but the children in their lives and in their communities who are not able to get vaccinated,” California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said. “The data is clear: Nearly all new COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are preventable. The vaccines work and they protect us.”
California lifted most pandemic restrictions on gatherings and activities June 15 as well as the statewide requirement for the vaccinated to continue wearing masks in indoor public places. State data compiled by this news organization shows that the rate of new infections per 10,000 residents across California increased 9% from the first 14 days of June to the second 14 days.
State officials said they anticipated a rise in cases and aren’t overly concerned.
“While overall COVID-19 metrics are near an all-time low, California has always prepared for a slight increase in cases and hospitaliza
tions post-reopening,” the California Department of Public Health said Friday. “There is no anticipation of any threat to the state’s health care system capacity. There are enough people vaccinated against COVID-19 that the system is not at risk of being overwhelmed if cases increase.”
Just over half of California’s nearly 40 million residents are fully vaccinated and more than 72% of those 12 and older who are eligible have had at least one of the often two required vaccine shots.
Dr. John Swartzberg, professor emeritus of infectious disease and vaccinology with the UC Berkeley-UC San Francisco Joint
Medical Program, views the uptick in cases with a “mixed mind.”
“I’m encouraged to see what these vaccines are doing — they’re not disappointing on any level,” Swartzberg said. “On the other hand, I’m disappointed to see the number of cases rising here.”
That increase largely is driven by the state’s coastal population centers.
The Southern California region of 23.1 million had infection rates rise nearly 24% from early to late June, to 2.9 cases per 10,000 residents. That includes San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, Inyo and Mono counties.
The 11-county greater Bay Area of 8.5 million had a more modest infection
rate increase from early to late June of 2% to 3.3%.
The state’s other lesspopulated regions had infection rates fall over that period, though they remain higher. The infection rate dropped 4% to 5.5% in the Greater Sacramento area, 8% to 3.5% in the San Joaquin Valley and 19% to 5.9% in the Northern California area.
The state’s pandemic picture is vastly improved from January when it was home to the nation’s worst outbreak as the virus surged through Southern California. On Jan. 7, the first Thursday that month, when vaccines were still limited to front line medical staff and longterm care facility residents and workers, California reported more than 50,030 new infections. The state reported 1,792 new cases
Thursday, 96% fewer.
COVID-19-related hospitalizations are similarly down 94% since Jan. 7, when California’s hospitals were filled with nearly 23,000 patients. Thursday, it was down to 1,366.
California’s outlook is similar to much of the country. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a White House news briefing Thursday that the seven-day average of new cases is down about 90% since January but up 10% in the past week.
The increase is believed to be driven by the Delta variant of the virus that ravaged India in the spring and is spreading rapidly through highly vaccinated United Kingdom. It accounts for about one in four cases nationally.
California Public Health
Officer and state Department of Public Health Director Dr. Tomás Aragón said Friday the Delta variant “accounts for approximately 36% of cases sampled in California and we expect this to rise.”
“COVID-19 has not gone away,” he said. “If you are not vaccinated, you are still at risk.”
How will that play out over the July 4 holiday weekend, when families and friends gather for barbecues and fireworks? A year ago, Californians largely disregarded state pandemic orders prohibiting people from gathering with others outside their households. California no longer prohibits that and says vaccinated people no longer need masks in most places.
But in Los Angeles County, which has seen that
24% increase in the rate of new infections from early to late June, health officials this week urged residents to continue wearing masks in indoor public places regardless of whether they’re vaccinated.
Dr. George Rutherford, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco said he doesn’t think the vaccinated in the Bay Area need to do that — yet — unless they are at particularly high risk for COVID-19. But the unvaccinated? “If you’re having people congregate and mix, if they’re unvaccinated, yes, they need to wear a mask indoors,” Rutherford said, noting that includes children. “We’ve seen clusters in kids and it remains a concern. If you have children 11 and under, you need to be treating this holiday like we did last year.”