A look at which Bay Area prospects could go in draft

It’s unlikely that any player with Bay Area ties will come off the board on the first day of the MLB draft, but by the time the 20-round affair is over, as many as a dozen or more local players could be on their first step to the show.

Overall, the local draft class — prep and college players alike — is a weak one by Bay Area standards, according to talent evaluators. St. Mary’s College left-hander Ky Bush and Acalanes High shortstop Davis Diaz have received the most buzz ahead of the draft, and a number of Cal and Stanford players should also hear their names called.

“The position players are just not an exciting crop. It’s just a down year. It cycles that way,” said one Northern California scout, who spoke with this news organization anonymously to share candid analysis of the region’s top prospects.

Below, the scout’s paraphrased evaluations for many local prospects on clubs’ draft boards are included with their rank in the Baseball America Top 500. The draft begins today with the first and supplemental rounds, continues Monday with rounds 2-10 and concludes Tuesday with the final 10 rounds.

KY BUSH, LHP, ST. MARY’S COLLEGE, 6-6, 240, AGE 21

Baseball America rank: No. 47

BA scouting grade (20-80): 50 | BA risk evaluation: High Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55

Scout’s take: Went 7-5 with a 2.99 ERA and 112 strikeouts to just 19 walks in 78 1/3 innings in his only season at St. Mary’s. A giant left-hander with a really good arm, the kind of prospect that doesn’t fall off trees every day. Fastball has touched 96mph.

DAVIS DIAZ, SS/C, ACALANES HS, 5-11, 170, AGE 18 Baseball America rank: No. 69

BA scouting grade (20-80): 50 | BA risk evaluation: Extreme

Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 40 | Field: 55 | Arm: 50

Scout’s take: Diaz’s position is the question. Although he played primarily shortstop in high school, he’s likely to go first to a team that sees him behind the plate. Committed to

Vanderbilt, will likely demand a signing bonus in the millions.

BRENDAN BECK, RHP, STANFORD, 6-2, 205, AGE 22 Baseball America rank: No. 81

BA scouting grade (20-80): 45| BA risk evaluation: High Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55

Scout’s take: Known for having a feel for his pitches, also saw a significant uptick in velocity this spring with a fastball touching mid-90s. Besides Bush, considered one of the safer options among local players to stick in the rotation. Younger brother of Giants prospect Tristan Beck.

GRANT HOLMAN, RHP, CAL, 6-6, 250, AGE 21 Baseball America rank: No. 120

BA scouting grade (20-80): 45| BA risk evaluation: High Fastball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 Scout’s take: A big, strong kid who is still trying to figure out who he is as a starting pitcher. Suffered from an inconsistent season; finished with a 3.83, 46 strikeouts and 22 walks in 47 innings. Velocity dropped toward the end of the season, but possibly best pure stuff in the class. Likely moves to the bullpen.

SEAN SULLIVAN, RHP, CAL, 6-1, 170, AGE 20 Baseball America rank: No. 130

BA scouting grade (20-80): 40 | BA risk evaluation: High Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55

Scout’s take: Went 4-5 with a 3.68 ERA, 75 strikeouts and 22 walks in 78 1/3 innings as Cal’s Friday night starter. More of a ceiling type of guy. Typical projection body. Could go anywhere from rounds 4-7.

IAN VILLERS, RHP, CAL, 6-6, 245, AGE 20 Baseball America rank: No. 172

Scout’s take: A late riser on many draft boards because of what he has shown in the Cape Cod League this summer. Has a big fastball and needs to add one more pitch. In the Cape, his slider has showed up. Could make it into the top 10 rounds.

DARREN BAKER, 2B, CAL, 6-0, 176, AGE 22 Baseball America rank: No. 189

BA scouting grade (20-80): 40 | BA risk evaluation: High Hit: 50 | Power: 20 | Run: 60 | Field: 55 | Arm: 45

Scout’s take: Son of manager Dusty Baker comes with expected baseball IQ. Versatile defender, likely ends up in center field. Speedy on the basepaths. Almost never strikes out. The downside? One home run in four years at Cal.

RODNEY GREEN, OF, EL CERRITO HS, 6-2, 160, AGE 18 Baseball America rank: No. 227

Scout’s take: Very athletic but raw center fielder who fell under many teams’ radars until recently. Committed to play at Cal. Type of player a team could fall in love with and jump on in the first five rounds.

MATT AGER, RHP, FOOTHILL HS (PLEASANTON), 6-5, 205, AGE 18

Baseball America rank: No. 244

Scout’s take: Has a frame that projects well, and fastball velocity jumped this spring to the low 90s. Could draw a team looking to spend in the later rounds but believed to be a strong commit to UC Santa Barbara.

BLAKE BURKE, 1B, DE LA SALLE HS (CONCORD), 6-3, 235, AGE 18

Baseball America rank: No. 267

Scout’s take: Raw power that will put on a show at the plate, but he might be married to first base defensively. Bay Area News Group player of the year this spring after mashing .554 with six home runs and 32 RBIs against high school competition. With a hard commitment to Tennessee, will likely demand a significant signing bonus.

RUBEN IBARRA, 1B, SAN JOSE STATE, 6-5, 290, AGE 22 Baseball America rank: No.327

Scout’s take: Massive power. Massive exit velocity. Has a feel for the barrel of the bat. Hit .381 with 14 home runs for San Jose State this spring. And an amazing mover for the size of body he is. Fun to watch take ground balls. A Matt Adams type of guy. Could sneak into the top 10 rounds.

TIM TAWA, IF/OF, STANFORD, 6-0, 191, AGE 22 Baseball America rank: No. 331

Scout’s take: Versatile position player often started games at second base and ended them in center field. Brings upthe-middle defense and a college bat to a draft lacking in both. Also an all-state quarterback in high school — can’t hurt.

Other names to know: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B (Oklahoma St./College Park HS); Ryan Higgins, 3B (Fresno State/St. Francis HS); Cullen Kafka, RHP (Oregon/De La Salle HS); Bryan Woo, RHP (Cal Poly/Alameda HS); Patrick Wicklander, LHP (Arkansas/Valley Christian HS)