Indifference from Democrats likely to hurt Newsom

Polls show that people opposed to the governor are more eager to vote

Earlier this year, it seemed Gov. Gavin Newsom had a lot of advantages heading into the recall election.

COVID-19 vaccines became available and the coronavirus pandemic finally waned. Newsom wielded a state budget flush with

a historic surplus and showed off his spending priorities at press conferences all over the state.

The first-term governor and the Democratic Party had major donors, a supermajority in the Legislature and almost half of all registered California voters on their side.

Now Newsom and the party have to make sure the state’s 10 million Democratic voters show up for him.

Recent polling suggests that may be a bigger challenge for him than his party expected even last month. Newsom’s opponents are far more motivated than his supporters to turn out in the recall election next month, raising the potential for his removal.

“For sure, it’s trending in our direction, and that’s exactly where you want to be before the game starts,” said Rescue California campaign manager Anne Dunsmore.

Anti-Newsom enthusiasm showed for months, when recall supporters gathered signatures, attended rallies and drove hundreds of miles in hopes of ousting a governor they saw as corrupt with power. At protests, they brought signs, banners and flags emblazoned with his face.

Democratic leaders now concede the enthusiasm gap among voters could have consequences for Newsom in the recall. In focus groups, they’ve found Democratic voters aren’t paying attention to the recall and don’t have

much interest in it.

“I think that’s been our concern from the very beginning,” said longtime Democratic strategist Katie Merrill. “The Republican, right-wing recall supporters are far more enthusiastic, far more engaged about voting and … they are going to turn out.”

Democratic voters are disengaged, Merrill said. The task of Newsom’s campaign, Stop the Republican Recall, will be to make sure voters are aware and motivated to cast ballots come September. The recall election is set for Sept. 14.

“The Democrats have to do everything possible to ensure that the recall fails,” she said. “There is no failsafe.”

Enthusiasm gap

Surveys for months consistently showed Newsom’s critics were much more interested in the recall than those who would keep him in office.

Public Policy Institue of California President Mark Baldassare in May pointed out a 15 percentage point enthusiasm gap between voters who want to recall Newsom and his supporters.

Those who supported the recall reported following the news more closely than those who don’t. Interest also increased among white voters and those in the more conservative Central Valley.

“If the governor’s supporters remain less engaged in the upcoming election, then the recall could end up being closer than the polls to date have indicated,” Baldassare wrote in May.

That month, PPIC’s survey found 57% of voters would choose to keep Newsom in office. That appeared to be a comfortable lead.

But a new Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll shows trends moving against Newsom. It found 47% of likely California voters support recalling Newsom, while 50% would keep him in office.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases are climbing again and wildfires are scorching Northern California.

The new poll, which shows likely voters almost evenly split on recalling Newsom, should be “very concerning” to the governor’s team, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which provides voter data to political campaigns.

Voter outreach

If Democrats want to engage voters in the recall, they may have handicapped themselves with a sooner-than-expected election, said Joshua Spivak, a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College and an expert on recall elections.

Up until last month, the conventional wisdom was that a recall would be scheduled in October or November. But thanks to some maneuvering from Democrats in the Legislature, state officials were able to schedule the recall in September, which supporters hoped would benefit the governor.

Spivak said it could end up hurting him.

“I thought the whole time that Newsom should take as much time as he can to alert people and make sure he gets his turnout,” Spivak said. “The pro-recall forces have the motivated group of voters. The question for Newsom is, can he get his people to come out to the polls? That’s a challenge.”

Democratic leaders, including party chair Rusty Hicks, said earlier this year that they’re prepared to reach out to voters to communicate “what the stakes are” in the recall election.

Communities of color will be a particular target, leaders said, and the party plans to do one-on-one outreach to those groups.

Newsom also has the support of California’s massive labor groups. The California Labor Federation recently completed focus groups with workers regarding the recall, and has committed to deploying 10,000 volunteers to conduct 4,000 miles of doorto-door canvassing ahead of Sept. 14.

But Steve Smith, communications director for the California Labor Federation, said it’s clear that voters are not engaged on the recall front.

In focus groups with undecided voters in Sacramento, Los Angeles and the Bay Area, no one voiced support for the recall, Smith said. However, very few had an understanding or the process or any knowledge of the candidates. They’re tuned out to TV ads and news coverage on the election, he added.

“Voters are really low info right now. Very little knowledge of the process or, frankly, the importance of the election,” Smith said in an email. “The takeaway for us was that we can’t rely solely on TV or media coverage to inform voters and push turnout. There has to be an extensive ground game to engage workers on what’s at stake through person-to-person communication … a low-turnout election leaves a lot to chance.”