Biden Announces Modest Goals to Curb Auto Emissions
On August 5th, President Biden signed an executive order directing the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to develop new fuel economy standards for the 2027-2030 model years. The document also proclaimed his goal to make 50% of new passenger cars and trucks “zero-emission vehicles” by 2030. The signing of the document coincided with the release of new proposals from the EPA and the NHTSA that would begin aggressively increasing the stringency of corporate average fuel economy standards from 2023 to 2026.
The new rules for 2023-2026 are designed to reverse the rollbacks of the Trump Administration, restoring overall regulatory stringency to roughly the level that was established under President Obama. If all goes as expected, Trump’s lenient “Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicle Rule” will only apply during the 2021 and 2022 model years and California will retain the legal authority to enforce stricter auto emission regulations along with its coalition of fourteen other environmentally progressive states. For folks concerned about greenhouse gases, these developments can only be seen as steps in the right direction.
The automotive community is also supportive of President Biden, praising his efforts to improve infrastructure so that electric vehicles can succeed. Biden sees the federal government as an ally of U.S. automakers rather than just a regulator, preferring carrots to sticks, and he demonstrates genuine empathy for unionized autoworkers. His proactive, cooperative approach hasn’t gone unnoticed.
Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis issued a joint statement declaring their “shared aspiration to achieve sales of 40-50% of annual U.S. volumes of electric vehicles (battery electric, fuel cell and plug-in hybrid vehicles) by 2030 in order to move the nation closer to a zero-emissions future consistent with Paris climate goals.” Supportive statements were also issued by the United Autoworkers, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, California Governor Gavin Newsom, the U.S. Climate Alliance, and the five California framework companies, BMW, Ford, Honda, Volkswagen, and Volvo.
By global standards, Biden’s aspirational 2030 goal is rather modest. Many nations have pledged to phase out internal combustion engines entirely in the 2030 to 2040 timeframe. The text of the executive order incorrectly refers to plug-in hybrids as “zero-emission vehicles”, reducing the ambitiousness of Biden’s stated goal. The error was clearly deliberate.
More importantly, the proposal from the EPA includes rule changes that will reduce the effectiveness of the stringency increases. There is currently a glut of compliance credits available for purchase that allows automakers to remain in compliance without actually achieving their required fleet targets. Fourteen out of twenty automakers failed to meet their standards in 2019, relying on banked credits to maintain compliance. The EPA intends to delay the expiration of banked credits and double the already generous credits awarded for selling EVs. Both revisions will increase the existing glut of credits that undermines enforcement of the standards.
People who care about climate change should applaud Biden’s overall support for electric vehicles while decrying the impotence of the EPA’s outdated regulatory framework. According to the EPA’s own 2020 Automotive Trends Report, realworld fuel economy improved just 7% from 2012 to 2019. Meanwhile, our national gasoline consumption continues to increase. It appears that more effective regulation of tailpipe carbon dioxide will have to wait until 2027.