Speier says she will not seek re-election; will others follow?

Representative has had a four-decade stint in area politics

Adding to a looming exodus of Democrats on Capitol Hill, U.S. Rep. Jackie Speier announced Tuesday that she will not run for re-election next year, opening a coveted seat to represent the Peninsula in Congress and stirring speculation over whether other veteran members of the Bay Area delegation could be next.

“It’s been a remarkable journey that has surpassed my wildest dreams,” the 71-year-old San Mateo Democrat said in a video message of her four-decade career in public office that began after she survived the Jonestown massacre. “It’s time for me to come home, time for me to be more than a weekend wife, mother and friend.”

In 1978, Speier was shot and left for dead on an airstrip in Guyana after accompanying her then-boss, Congressman Leo Ryan, on a mission to investigate Jim Jones’ cult compound. The trip would cost Ryan his life and set in motion for Speier a career that has seen her rise from the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors through state government and to the halls of Congress, part of a wave of Bay Area women such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi who have come to dominate local Democratic politics.

“I vowed that if I survived, I would dedicate my life to public service,” Speier, who has spent much of her career fighting for women’s rights, said in the video. “I lived and I served.”

Speier has been outspoken about sexual harassment in Congress and revealed that she had been harassed on Capitol Hill as a young staffer. She introduced the Me Too Congress Act, which later served as the basis for reforms to the Congressional Accountabil

ity Act. It makes anti-harassment training mandatory and bars non-disclosure agreements from silencing survivors.

News of her departure comes amid mounting retirements among House Democrats, with many analysts projecting the party could face steep losses in the 2022 midterm elections, including control of the House of Representatives. At least nine House Democrats have said they will retire from their positions rather than seek reelection next year.

Speier said in an interview that her decision was several years in the making and that the possibility of once again being in the minority party did not affect her decision. Her husband, Barry Dennis, retired a year and a half ago, and the pair would like to travel and, possibly, dote on future grandchildren.

“I do think there’s a time when it’s appropriate to pass the torch,” she said.

More than half of the Bay Area’s congressional delegation is over the age of 70, with Sen. Dianne Feinstein now the oldest sitting senator at 88. While no other local representatives on Tuesday indicated any plans to retire in response to questions from this news organization, political analysts say the fact that the House looks likely to flip to GOP control could play a role in encouraging some lawmakers to step away from the Capitol. During a leadership struggle three years ago, Pelosi publicly committed to step down as speaker by the end of 2022 but has been silent about her plans recently.

“I think we’ll lose a lot of people,” said Melissa Michelson, a Menlo College political science professor.

“Anybody who has served in Congress for awhile has seen how more divisive and unpleasant it has become,” Michelson continued. “And if you’ve moved in and out of being the minority party, you know it’s fairly unpleasant. … It’s always being on the losing side of votes.”

In the deep blue Bay Area, most Democratic elected officials contemplating a change can be relatively certain their successor will hail from the same party. Speier represents the 14th congressional district, which stretches from the southern part of San Francisco to East Palo Alto.

Already, potential successors are stepping forward.

David Canepa, president of the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors, said in an interview there is a “strong possibility” he’ll run for the seat.

Another possible contender is Kevin Mullin, Speaker pro Tempore of the California State Assembly. His office declined to say whether he would jump into the field. Other names, from state Sen. Josh Becker to Redwood City Council members Giselle Hale and Alicia Aguirre, were already swirling Tuesday.

“We’ve got far more politically ambitious players than we have elected offices for them to hold,” said Darry Sragow, a longtime Democratic strategist in the Golden State.

Canepa acknowledged he could be in for a tough fight.

“I think it’s going to be competitive,” he said. “I think there’s going to be a lot of people who are interested. That’s a good thing. … We’re starting to see a changing of the guard.”

Michelson said Speier’s departure could create a chance for other women or people of color to run — a sort of “West Coast AOC,” a reference to progressive New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

“I wonder if the spirit of the moment means it’s more of an opportunity for somebody who is maybe less experienced and less a part of the Democratic establishment in the area to be a stronger candidate,” she said.

Whether longtime local lawmakers such as Pelosi, Rep. Anna Eshoo, DPalo Alto, and others decide to run again remains to be seen. Rep. Zoe Lofgren’s office said the San Jose Democrat would seek re-election.

Sragow sees plenty of reasons to step away but also, he said, “plenty of reasons,” especially for Pelosi, to stick around — namely helping Biden, who has seen flagging approval ratings, secure his agenda and a second term.

Still, he’s not shocked by Speier’s announcement.

“One of the lessons in life is always leave them wanting more, knowing when to hold them and when to fold them, so I’m not surprised,” he said. “I view her as somebody very clear-headed.”

Speier, who has two adult children, is mulling over what’s next but said she’d like to help seed and fundraise for a robust foundation to support San Mateo County nonprofits.

She declined to say who she’d like to succeed her but said the person should “care deeply” and be committed to running a “robust district office.”

For now Speier, who serves on the House Armed Services Committee among other assignments, is focused on finishing out her current term strong, focusing on everything from supporting military service members to families with young children.

“I want to get a lot done,” she said. “Time is of the essence.”