As West warns of Russian attack, Ukraine delivers diferent message

KYIV, UKRAINE >> Russia’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border is easy to see. Satellite images show ever-growing patches of snow-covered tanks expanding along the frontier, and a stream of Russian TikTok posts records the steady westerly crawl of trains carrying missile launchers, armor and troops.

And yet despite the buildup — and even with the United States warning that an attack could come imminently, and NATO forces on alert — Ukraine’s leadership is playing down the Russian threat.

That posture has left analysts guessing about the leadership’s motivation, with some saying it is to keep the Ukrainian markets stable, prevent panic and avoid provoking Moscow, while others attribute it to the country’s uneasy acceptance that conflict with Russia is part of Ukraine’s daily existence.

On Tuesday, Russia announced a flurry of military drills, from the Pacific Ocean to its western flank around Ukraine, a demonstration of the vast reach of its forces. And, wary of the threat that Russia could turn off fuel sales to Europe in the depths of winter, the Biden administration is making plans for gas and crude oil suppliers from the Middle East, North Africa and Asia to bolster supplies to Europe in coming weeks.

But as the Kremlin and the West square off, Ukrainian officials are projecting an air of calm. Already this week,

Ukraine’s defense minister has asserted that there had been no change in the Russian forces compared with a buildup in the spring; the head of the national security council accused some Western countries and news media outlets of overstating the danger for geopolitical purposes; and a Foreign Ministry spokesperson took a swipe at the United States and Britain for pulling the families of diplomats from their embassies in Kyiv, saying they had acted prematurely.

This week’s proclamations came after an address to the nation last week by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which he asked, “What’s new? Isn’t this the reality for eight years?” On Tuesday evening, Zelenskyy weighed in on the embassy withdrawals, insisting in a Facebook post that this “did not mean escalation is inevitable.”