President Biden showing he can’t stand up to Putin

Here’s a question: If President Joe Biden can’t stand up to Germany, how can he stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine?

Most of the NATO alliance is united in taking a tough stand to support Ukraine and deter and punish Russia if it invades. The skunk at the garden party is Berlin. While other NATO allies provide Ukraine with weapons, Germany is blocking Estonia from sending military aid to Kyiv, refusing to provide permits for the transfer of German-origin weapons to the besieged democracy.

Germany is also resisting efforts to specify tough sanctions the allies would impose if Putin does in fact invade. The reason? Sanctions that actually hurt Putin would have to target Russia’s two most significant exports: oil and natural gas. But Germany is the world’s biggest buyer of Russian gas. Germany now gets more than half of its gas imports from Russia (compared with about 40% on average for the rest of the European Union).

Worse still, Germany has insisted on proceeding with the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline with Russia. Nord Stream 2 represents an existential threat to Ukraine, because it will allow Putin to cut off natural gas exports to Kyiv without cutting off Western Europe. It will also double Germany’s capacity for Russian gas imports — increasing its dependence on Russian energy.

The other sanctions that would hurt Moscow involve blacklisting major Russian banks, and kicking Moscow out of the SWIFT network used by almost all major financial institutions to wire money — which would effectively exclude Russia from the global economy. But once again, Germany is opposed.

If Biden wants to prevent a Russian invasion, he needs to stop letting Germany dictate the U.S. response and start projecting strength. He does not need Germany’s permission to act.

First, he should immediately reimpose the sanctions he lifted on Nord Stream 2. He should tell Berlin that Russia has already demonstrated that it cannot be allowed to hold Ukraine’s energy supplies hostage — and that he will not allow Germany to increase Europe’s dependence on Russian energy.

Second, he should outline the specific, crippling sanctions the United States will impose on Russian energy exports if Putin invades, and publicly name the Russian banks the United States will sanction. He can do this without giving Berlin a veto.

Third, he should take the Polish government up on the offer they made when Donald Trump was in office to move U.S. troops from Stuttgart, Germany, to a new permanent U.S. military base in Poland. Why should Germany — which, despite being the wealthiest country in Europe, spends only 1.4% of its gross domestic product on defense — continue to be rewarded with the economic benefit of U.S. bases?

Putin thinks Biden is bluffing when he threatens serious consequences. He knows that in 2014, when he last invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, the Obama-Biden administration shied away from energy and banking sanctions that would have hit Moscow in a significant way. The paltry sanctions they did impose temporarily cost Russia about 1% of GDP — a price Putin was willing to pay for Crimea. He’s betting that the Western allies will not do much more today. He knows that Germany will seek to weaken any Western response, because he has hooked Berlin on Russian energy.

This is why Biden needs to stand up to both Berlin and Moscow. If he fails to do so, this could be the end of the Atlantic alliance. The purpose of NATO was to deter Russian aggression. If allies can’t agree to take steps necessary to do that, then it’s fair to ask: Why does NATO exist? And it will be Biden — and Berlin — that killed it.