Climate change report has grim outlook
Painting alarming scenes of fires, floods and economic disruption, the Legislature's advisers have released a series of reports that lays out in stark terms the impacts of climate change across the state.
The typically reserved, nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office outlined dire consequences for Californians as climate change continues to alter most aspects of daily life. Much of the focus of the six-part series is detailing the economic cost as the changing climate alters where and how Californians build, grow food and protect the most vulnerable residents.
Wildfires, heat and floods will force more frequent school closures, disrupting education, child care and availability of free school lunches. More than 1,600 schools temporarily closed because of wildfires each year from 2017 to 2020, affecting nearly a million students a year.
Workers in outdoor industries like agriculture, construction, forestry and recreation — 10% of California's workforce and mostly Latinos — will continue to bear the brunt of extreme heat and smoke.
Wildfire smoke may have killed about 20 people among every 100,000 older Californians in 2020, and is projected to become more deadly. A 50% increase in smoke could kill nine to 20 more people among every 100,000 each year.
Housing, rail lines, bridges, ports, power plants, freeways and other structures are vulnerable to rising seas and tides. “Between $8 billion and $10 billion of existing property in California is likely to be underwater by 2050, with an additional $6 billion to $10 billion at risk during high tide.”
Extreme heat is projected to cause nine deaths per 100,000 people each year, “roughly equivalent to the 2019 annual mortality rate from automobile accidents in California.”
Housing will be lost: In the San Francisco Bay Area alone, 13,000 existing housing units and 104,000 job spaces “will no longer be usable” because of sea rise over the next 40 to 100 years.
The report's unsaid but unambiguous conclusion: Climate change could alter everything, and spare no one in California, so legislators should consider preparing for sweeping impacts.
“These hazards will threaten public health, safety, and well-being — including from life-threatening events, damage to public and private property and infrastructure, and impaired natural resources,” the analysts say in their report.
Scientists say it's not too late to stop the most severe effects, although the clock is ticking. Technologies and other solutions already exist to reduce greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and other sources and prevent more irreversible harm, according to a landmark international scientific report released April 4. But international accords and plans continue to fall far short, with emissions expected to keep increasing.
State Sen. Bob Wieckowski, a Democrat from Fremont and chair of the budget subcommittee on resources, environmental protection and energy, said he plans to turn to the reports as references and rationale for the subcommittee's budget proposals.
“It's impressive,” he said. “(It) turns the climate conversation into an all-handson-deck versus, `Oh, this is just some tree hugger over here.'”
Last year's budget package reflected the overarching scope of the problem, proposing to spend $9.3 billion over three years to bolster the state's responses to drought, floods, fire and sea level rise.
The reports come in the lead-up to California Gov.
Gavin's Newsom's May revision to his January budget blueprint, when the administration can reframe and update its proposals. Thus far, the proposed budget included more than $22 billion for climate change efforts that include protecting communities against wildfires and extreme heat.
The analysis made clear that many of the worst consequences are already here.
Summer temperatures scorched records as the state's second-largest wildfire tore across Northern California during the third-driest year on record for rain and snowfall. California must brace for yet more climate hazards, the reports warn, from extreme heat to more severe wildfires, whiplash from drought to flood and sea-level rise along the coast.
It's a disaster drumbeat that Californians have heard many times before. The Legislative Analyst's Office has released report after report assessing the state's climate policies and spending. It has warned that sea-level rise will submerge billions of dollars in homes, roads and businesses by 2050, and that the state must accelerate planning to protect state assets including college campuses, prisons and even state workers from soaring heat, flooding, fire and extreme weather.
Newsom's administration launched a preemptive response to the reports, with the April 4 release of its updated climate adaptation strategy. The guidelines pull together plans from 38 departments and address priority issues, such as protecting communities vulnerable to climate change and combating risks to health and safety.
California Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot said the strategy is “a matter of protecting our residents and our communities, our natural places, from climate threats that are already here.”