PELOSI BEGINS VISIT TO TAIWAN
House speaker's trip increases tensions between U.S., China
TAIPEI, TAIWAN >> House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday for an unannounced but widely anticipated and controversial visit sure to deepen U.S.-China tensions and fears of military conflict between the two superpowers.
Pelosi, an outspoken critic of Beijing, is the highestranking elected U.S. official to visit Taiwan in 25 years. Even before her arrival during an official tour of Asia, the prospect of a stop in Taiwan drew the ire of Beijing, which sees the trip as a challenge to its claim of sovereignty over the self-governed island.
“Our delegation's visit to Taiwan honors America's unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan's vibrant Democracy,” Pelosi tweeted within minutes of touching down at the airport in Taipei. The closely watched flight from Malaysia took a long route around the South China Sea and landed shortly after 10:40 p.m., where Pelosi was greeted by Taiwanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu and other officials.
In a dig at China, she added that supporting Taiwan “is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.” But she also insisted that her visit “in no way contradicts” the U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan that has held for decades.
Pelosi was scheduled to meet with Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, this morning.
Chinese officials have been quick to threaten reprisal, with President Xi Jinping warning President Joe Biden last week that “those who play with fire will perish by it.” The aggressive rhetoric has stoked concerns over military escalation, fueling a debate over the wisdom of Pelosi's trip and the potential backlash to it.
After Pelosi landed in Taiwan, China's Ministry of Defense condemned the visit and said it would launch a series of targeted military operations.
State media reported that the military's Eastern Theater command began a series of naval and air exercises and long-range live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday night, and that the army planned to conduct military drills from Thursday through Sunday all around the island, after Pelosi is scheduled to leave.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday accused the U.S. emboldening Taiwan independence efforts and said it would have to bear the consequences of its actions.
The democratically ruled island of 23 million has become a central point of contention in the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship. With mistrust growing between the two countries, analysts said Pelosi's visit could lead to miscommunication and a military clash that neither side wants.
“The risk of an unintended crisis as a result of large-scale military posturing by China is uncomfortably high,” said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the think tank International Crisis Group. “It's very possible for policymakers on the two sides to radically misread each other's intentions.”
Given the heightened tensions, the U.S., China and Taiwan will need to tread carefully to avoid aggravating the situation, Hsiao said.
China's global power and influence have grown exponentially since the last such visit by a U.S. official of Pelosi's rank, when then-Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Republican, traveled to Taiwan in 1997 to meet with then-President Lee Teng-hui. Although some experts in the U.S. warned that Pelosi's trip, while offering little material benefit, could prompt a saber-rattling response from Beijing that mushrooms into a larger crisis, others worried that a cancellation would be seen as bowing to Chinese pressure and undermine faith in U.S. support for Taiwan.
While the Biden administration is reluctant to look soft on China, it also has little interest in antagonizing the country's leadership, particularly with war raging between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. has warned China against providing material support to Russia, and would be hard-pressed to confront challenges from both countries at once.
Prior to Pelosi's trip, Biden said the Pentagon advised against it but was taking steps to ensure her safety.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the visit did not contravene long-standing U.S. policy and should not be a reason for China to increase military activity.
Analysts said that though Beijing is under pressure to follow through with its warnings, it wants to stop short of actions that could draw it into a war with the U.S., which is bound by federal law to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself. Biden has said the U.S. would intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan, though the administration has walked back those comments. China's countermeasures, which include missile tests, expanding military exercises and more aggressive air and sea excursions, are a step up from normal military activity around Taiwan and indicate a more provocative stance.
More dire possibilities might include a naval blockade directed at the key southwestern port city of Kaohsiung, no-fly zones over the Taiwan Strait and military exercises that cut off Taiwan's conduit to the outside world. Those scenarios would mark significant escalation and pose grave danger for the Taiwanese military, which would have to respond by scrambling warplanes and naval assets.