The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
A heaping helping of some home cooking
Road teams have had their share of success against the spread this NFL season. But this is one of those weeks where the home teams will rule.
There are 11 home favorites this weekend and I see most of them winning both straight up and ATS. One exception is Washington, which I believe will win on the field but be hard-pressed to cover the 5 points given to Tennessee. Another exception is Pittsburgh, which has issues and could lose against Houston on Monday night.
There are three home underdogs and St. Louis should cover getting six points. The Rams will likely lose to Seattle, but have enough on both sides of the ball to keep the game close.
One home favorite I like because of the low point spread is San Diego, even though a pair of betting trends point toward a Kansas City cover.
The Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on the road. They are coming off the bye and coach Andy Reid is 13-2 after having a week off.
Despite these solid trends in KC’s favor, the Chargers look too strong and have the homefield advantage. The Chiefs’ key to victory is total domination by running back Jamaal Charles. He will have success and the Chiefs will score points, just not enough to cover.
Another home team to key on is Detroit. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is expected to be without his security blanket as tight end Jimmy Graham is nursing a shoulder sprain. If he plays, he won’t be 100 percent. If the Lions are without injured receiver Calvin Johnson again, they still have enough to cover the 3-point spread. Another factor to consider is the Saints are 0-3 ATS on the road this season.
Today’s Games
Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3): The Colts are tough at home, going 15-5ATS in their last 20in Indy. Nowak’s pick: Colts 27-20. Tennessee atWashington (-6): Both teams have given up more points than they have scored. Washington wins, but doesn’t cover. Nowak’s pick: Washington 24-21. Miami at Chicago (-3): Bears receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are healthier these days and that combo, along with Matt Forte’s running game, should dominate. Nowak’s pick: Bears 30-17. Cleveland at Jacksonville (+5): The Jags have only scored 81points this season, and that number should stay under 100 after this weekend. Nowak’s pick: Browns 30-17. Seattle at St. Louis (+6): See
above. Nowak’s pick: Seahawks 23-20. Carolina at Green Bay (-6): The Panthers’ defense has allowed 157 points, including a combined 75 in their two road games this year. Nowak’s pick: Packers 38-24. Atlanta at Baltimore (-6): The Ravens have been soaring on both sides of the ball lately while the Falcons aren’t the same team when they are on the road. Nowak’s pick: Ravens 30-17. Minnesota at Buffalo (-5): The Bills’ D plus the Vikings’ 1-10-1 record ATS in their last 12road games equals a big Buffalo win. Nowak’s pick: Bills 27-13. NewOrleans at Detroit (-2):
See above. Nowak’s pick: Lions 30-20. Kansas City at San Diego (-4):
See above. Nowak’s pick: Chargers 38-24. Giants at Dallas (-6): This game showcases the importance of the offensive line — the Giants’ weak line and the Cowboys’ strong line. Nowak’s pick: Cowboys 30-17. Arizona at Oakland (+3): The Raiders were competitive against the Chargers last week, covered ATS and almost pulled out a win. This week they play a motivated Cardinals team which finds itself atop the NFC West at 4-1. The return of QB Carson Palmer from a shoulder injury last week and a strong defense are additional factors in favor of the Cardinals. Nowak’s pick: Cardinals 24-17. San Francisco at Denver (-6): The 49ers are 3-0ATS the last three seasons the week before they go on the bye. Broncos win, 49ers cover. Nowak’s pick: Brocnos 27-24.
Monday’s Game
Houston at Pittsburgh (-3): The Steelers have been challenged while Texans defensive end J.J. Watt has met his challenge by “workin’ it” with quarterback sacks, interceptions returned for TDs and a Verizon commercial. Nowak’s pick: Texans 27-20.