Patriots got this one covered

In recent years, the playoffs have been my platform to shine when it comes to handicapping the National Football League.

I enter this season’s Super Bowl with a decent 8-2 record both against the spread and straight up in the playoffs. Green Bay was the team that was the thorn in my side, leading to my two losses. In the wild-card round, I picked the Giants against the Packers and the Packers won and covered against the spread. In the NFC championship game, I picked the Packers over the Atlanta Falcons and the Falcons won and covered.

Including the previous three seasons, overall I am 32-9-2 against the spread and 35-8 straight up in the NFL playoffs. This includes 3-0 ATS and straight up in the last three Super Bowls.

This year’s Super Bowl matchup with New England and Atlanta is challenging with two highscoring offenses.

When it comes to the Patriots, there are trends that certainly don’t favor them when it comes to covering. New England has won the game in three of its last five Super Bowl appearances, but the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in those games. New England quarterback Tom Brady is 16-17 ATS in the playoffs.

Favorites are 0-5 ATS and straight up in the last five Super Bowls and 3-12 in the last 15 Super Bowls.

Both teams enter the Super Bowl with some impressive records ATS and straight up this season. Including the playoffs, Atlanta is 12-6 ATS and 13-5 straight up and New England is 15-3 ATS and 16-2 straight up. Both teams are 2-0 ATS and straight up in the playoffs.

While there are trends that favor Atlanta, there are some key trends that favor the Patriots.

Atlanta enters the Super Bowl with the top-scoring offense (34.4 points a game) this season and New England has the topscoring defense allowing 15.7 points a game. Teams with the top scoring defense are 5-1 in the last six Super Bowls.

The Patriots have also been peaking at the right time, going 7-0 both straight up and ATS in their last seven games.

Many handicappers are picking Atlanta because its offensive depth is impressive with quarterback Matt Ryan, who has seven TDs and no interceptions in the playoffs, a talented running back duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and receivers Julio Jones, arguably the best in the league, Mohamed Sanu and deep threat Taylor Gabriel.

But it is very tough to bet against Brady and New England coach Bill Belichick. Brady has been dominant since returning from a four-game suspension to start the season as a result of Deflategate.

In addition to Brady, the Patriots’ offense boasts a solid receiving group led by Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and tight end Martellus Bennett who is banged up with a knee injury but is expected to start.

Freeman and Coleman will make an impact) at running back for the Falcons. But the Pats have their own depth at the position to match that duo with LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis and passcatching James White. Lewis is a game-changer in three phases of the game – running, catching and as a kickoff/punt returner. In the Divisional round, he scored a TD in all three phases in the win over Houston.

New England’s offense and defense will combine to win this game. But there is another factor — the Patriots’ Super Bowl experience and their players discipline to deal with all the Super Bowl buildup distractions.

Nowak’s pick: Patriots 31-24.