The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
Lamont ahead in early polls
Sacred Heart/Hearst and Quinnipiac surveys have Dem in the lead
Judging by the first two polls of the 2018 race for governor, Democrat Ned Lamont is ahead of Republican Bob Stefanowski by a little — or a lot.
The new Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media Poll of likely voters has Lamont ahead by about 4 percentage points, within the margin of error. The Quinnipiac University Poll, released Thursday hours after the Sacred Heart/Hearst survey, has Lamont ahead by 13 percentage points.
Lamont said he believes more in the Sacred Heart/ Hearst poll.
"I'm a conservative,” he quipped Thursday afternoon. “But I also know it's still August and there is a lot of baseball to play.”
In response to the polls, Stefanowski released a statement also putting more weight in the Sacred Heart/ Hearst poll.
“It's a very close race in a traditionally Democratic state,” he said. “The primary was just last week and the race is just beginning.”
Both surveys admit that with Labor Day coming next week, there is a long way to go before the November election.
While the Greenwich businessman has 40.8 percent support among likely voters, Stefanowski, an executive from Madison has 36.9 percent, the Sacred Heart/Hearst poll finds.
The Quinnipiac University Poll of registered voters has Lamont with 46 percent to Stefanowski’s 33 percent.
The Sacred Heart/Hearst survey finds that women support Lamont 49.3 percent, compared to 30 percent for Stefanowski. But males in the survey back Stefanowski by 43.9 percent to Lamont’s 31.4 percent.
Crucial unaffiliated voters are virtually tied, at 29.8 percent each, for the two candidates. And 16.7 percent are undecided over whom to support on November 6.
Lamont said polls won’t affect the way he would govern. He noted that the Quinnipiac Poll indicates
that 56 percent of voters believe that ending the income tax over eight years is “not realistic.”
Stefanowski is campaigning on promises to end income taxes.
“That’s great. But really? That's not realistic and I think the long-term consequences would be harmful,” Lamont said.
Undecided voters
Gary L. Rose, chairman of the Department of Government at Sacred Heart University, said the campaign at this point is indeed a classic toss-up.
“It’s still a very-fluid race largely due to the fact that very hefty portions of Connecticut’s electorate are not familiar enough with Lamont and Stefanowski,” Rose said in an interview.
While the Sacred Heart/Hearst Poll surveyed 502 likely voters, with a 4.23-percent margin of error, Quinnipiac contacted 1,029 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
There is a difference between voters who identify themselves as “likely” to the Sacred Heart/Hearst survey and those whose names are taken by Quinnipiac from registration rolls, which could help explain the different popularity findings.
“Ned Lamont is leading Bob Stefanowski by double digits thanks to huge support among women and Connecticut’s status as a true blue state. But there’s a lot of time until Election Day, and a number of undecided voters up for grabs,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz.
He indicated that while Republicans have been trying to tag Lamont with Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, Stefanowski’s alignment with the president seems more effective for Democrats.
Trump effect
“Voters both approve and disapprove more strongly of President Trump,” Schwartz said. “While there’s been a lot more talk about eliminating the income tax, voters are much more supportive of raising the minimum wage.”
The Quinnipiac Poll also finds Sen. Chris Murphy with a nearly two-to-one lead over his GOP challenger Matthew Corey, 59-percent to 31-percent.
“It’s obvious that taxes and the high overall cost of living in Connecticut are huge issues for voters going into the November elections,” said Professor Lesley DeNardis, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy and director of Sacred Heart University’s master of public administration program.
Asked why it has been more than two years since the Hamden-based Quinnipiac Poll held an in-state survey, Schwartz said there was “just a lot going on nationally.”
On national issues, less than one-third — 30.5 percent — of those contacted by the Sacred Heart/Hearst poll approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 58.3 disapprove. This issue could come back to haunt Stefanowski, who fully supports the president and his policies, while Lamont and state Democrats have been highly critical.
The survey was conducted by Sacred Heart University in cooperation with Great Blue Research, from Aug. 16 through the 21st. The Quinnipiac Poll queried voters during the same period.
Lamont, of Greenwich, and Stefanowski, of Madison, won their respective primaries on Aug. 14.