Banking on a pair of underdogs

At this stage of the NFL season, as trends start to emerge and solidify, you think you would have a pretty good handle on the season moving forward. But Thursday’s Oakland at San Francisco game just proves you can’t take anything for granted.

The way the 49ers have struggled on both sides of the ball, scoring about 20 points a game and allowing about 30, I would have never figured the 49ers to put together a blowout win at any time. And yet San Francisco cruised to a 34-3 win over Oakland.

Sure, Oakland has struggled and looked inept on both sides of the ball with only one win this season. But against the weak 49ers you would think the Raiders would have at least been competitive.

It solidifies the old axiom that when betting the NFL, there is never a sure thing, and that’s why they call it gambling.

Today on the other hand, I see two games producing matchups that don’t exactly line up with the points oddsmakers have attached, making it real hard to pick against the underdogs.

Cleveland is hosting Kansas City and its highpowered offense and the Browns are a 8-point home underdog. Yes, the Browns have lost three in a row and the Chiefs are 4-1 in their last five games and 7-1 overall. But the Browns have played their best football at home with a 2-1-1 record and overall six of their eight games have been decided by four points or less, including a 21-21 tie with Pittsburgh.

The Chiefs will likely win and could very well own a double-digit lead at one point. But I think the Browns do their 2018 thing and play well enough late in the game to keep it close and well enough for a backdoor cover against the spread.

In another game, Green Bay travels to New England in a much-anticipated matchup between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers are getting six points and I think you have to take the points in this spot.

Green Bay has been up and down this season with a 3-3-1 record with 175 points scored and 173 allowed. The key here is Rodgers who, when healthy, makes everyone around him better.

The Packers had a tough matchup against arguably a tougher defense last week when they played the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers lost — barely — by a score of 29-27.

Today’s game should be another close one with a field goal determining the winner.

TODAY’S GAMES

Detroit at Minnesota (-5): The Vikings are solid on both sides of the ball. The Lions just traded away their best receiver Golden Tate. Nowak’s pick: Vikings 30-17.

Kansas City at Cleveland (+8): See above. Nowak’s pick: Chiefs 30-27.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3): The Ravens defense is the key in this AFC North matchup. Nowak’s pick: Ravens 27-20.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6 Tampa Bay struggles the1 Panthers excel at home on the road (1-3), while (4-0). Cam Newton has a big day in this one. Nowak’s pick: Panthers 38-17.

Jets at Miami (-3): Injuries have impacted both teams and they are both coming off two straight losses. Edge to Miami playing at home: Nowak’s pick: Dolphins 24-17.

Atlanta a t Washington (-11⁄2): The difference in this game is the Washington defense, which has allowed the fourth fewest points in the league with 134. Nowak’s pick: Washington 27-20.

Chicago at Buffalo (+10): The NFL’s worst offensive team this season (the Bills have scored 87 points) plus one of the league’s top defenses equals a Bears blowout. Give the points. Nowak’s pick: Bears 30-13.

Houston at Denver (-1):

The Texans have won five in a row and should make it six after recently acquiring the Broncos’ Demaryius Thomas in a trade. It would be fitting that Thomas scores the game-winning TD against his former team. Nowak’s pick: Texans 31-21.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle (-1): The Seahawks are getting healthier and as a result have starting turning their season around, going 4-1 in their last five games. Nowak’s pick: Seahawks 27-20.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans (pick): This game looks wide open and should become an offensive shootout. But Rams running back Todd Gurley seems to be on a mission this season and can’t be stopped. Rams get it done to remain the last NFL unbeaten team and improve to 9-0. Nowak’s pick:

Rams 35-31.

Green Bay at New England (-6): See above. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 30-27.

MONDAY’S GAME

Tennessee at Dallas (-6): The Cowboys have played their best football at home (3-0) and gets the services of recently acquired receiver Amari Cooper, possibly taking some defensive pressure off of running back Ezekiel Elliot. Nowak’s pick: Cowboys 30-20.