The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
Congressional seat could be at risk
As population growth in Connecticut lags
NEW HAVEN — As the United States’ population grows annually, Connecticut’s inability to keep apace might have political consequences.
According to U.S. Census Bureau projections from 2018, the nation’s population grew by 18.4 million, or 5.96 percent, from the last census in 2010; but Connecticut ranks 48th in the nation for state growth, and is one of three states projected to have shrunk — by 1,482 people — since 2010.
“A lot of it has to do with the job opportunities in Connecticut; we’ve had major corporations leave such as General Electric recently, and Connecticut is still financially in a recession-like economy,” said Gayle Alberda, assistant professor of politics and public administration at Fairfield University. “Another big thing is ‘brain drain,’ and it’s hard to retire here.”
Wesley Renfro, associate professor of political science at Quinnipiac University, said the state’s effectively plateaued population is “a ticking time bomb,” because young people are neither moving to nor staying in the state, so the population is aging.
“There’s fewer young people here than there should be,” he said.
Experts say Connecticut’s lagging population is of interest because of the impact it could have on the state’s congressional representatives, of which there are currently five. Following the census, Congress reapportions the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives every 10 years based on state population so citizens have approximately equal representation. In 2010, the average size of a congressional district was 710,767, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
For now, experts believe Connecticut’s five congressional districts will remain intact past 2020.
“It’s possible, but it’s very unlikely” that Connecticut will lose a representative following 2020, said Jeffrey Ladewig, associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut.
Ladewig said that in 2010, residents of Connecticut were slightly underrepresented in Congress, with a population large enough for about 5.05 congressional districts. By 2020, following current trends, Ladewig said, Connecticut is likely to maintain five congressional districts, but will be overrepresented with a population befitting an estimated 4.75 districts.
“By 2030, in all likelihood, we’ll lose a seat,” he said.
U.S. Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D-3, said that if “the experts are right” and Connecticut could lose a congressional seat in a little more 11 years, “There are many critical issues that working families face in Connecticut now and over the next decade — including the dramatic effects climate change and rising automation could have on jobs, the environment and national security — but reapportionment is not high on that list.”
“I have no doubt that Connecticut will continue to have representation in Congress from strong leaders who are fighting for working families and the middle class.” she said.
Ladewig said the census numbers don’t tell the full story with reapportionment, as overseas populations such as those serving in the military are absent from census estimates of the resident population but will be included in apportionment discussions. He said the effect on Connecticut of including overseas residents would likely be negligible though.
The effects on Connecticut politics of losing a congressional district could be significant.
“It would set off a pretty complicated process within state-level politics,” Renfro said. “There would be a lot of jockeying over five seats becoming four seats, because an incumbent would lose a seat. Given that Connecticut’s delegation to the House of Representatives is overwhelmingly Democratic most of the time, it has potential to be a nasty intra-party fight over how five seats gets translated into four.”
The Connecticut legislature is responsible for drawing congressional boundaries and, once they have a draft map in place, it takes a supermajority vote to approve new congressional district boundaries.
Alberda said a political battle in 2030 could be influenced by what occurs in 2020, if state-level political districts were redrawn, which could tip the balance of power between urban centers and suburbs and between Democrats and Republicans.
“One has to wonder if you could see the return of Republicans,” said Jonathan Wharton, a professor of political science at Southern Connecticut State University and former chairman of the New Haven Republican Party.
Wharton said Republicans have been targeting the 4th Congressional District, which encompasses Greenwich as well as Bridgeport and is currently held by Democrat Jim Himes, “for many years” and that the 5th District, which recently elected Democratic political newcomer Jahana Hayes, is “not nearly as strong of a blue district” as the 1st and 3rd, which include Hartford and New Haven, respectively.
Ron Schurin, an associate professor in residence of political science at the University of Connecticut, said he does not anticipate that Democrats in Connecticut will have a major battle if they redistrict. However, incumbents may find themselves challenged politically by new constituents. If the map changes, it could influence the electorate in some districts.
“The (DeLauro) seat is a longtime Democratic seat. The (Rep. Jim Himes, D-4) seat has been in play for many years and still could be,” he said. “Himes is certainly more responsible to the financial community than someone sitting in Rosa DeLauro’s seat.”
The last time Connecticut lost a representative, in 2002 following the 2000 Census, it sparked a tough, partisan battle in the newly redrawn 5th Congressional District between two incumbents: Democrat Jim Maloney and Republican Nancy Johnson, who won the seat.
“If Democrats are in control of redistricting, they have to choose which two incumbents face off. The only projection you can make is it would be highly partisan,” said Ladewig. “It makes all incumbents a little vulnerable, because they all will have new voters in their districts who don’t all know them.”
Gary Rose, chairman of the Department of Government, Politics and Global Studies at Sacred Heart University, said he does not believe the electoral math would work for Republicans in most places.
“Irrespective of how the reconfiguring is done, it’s going to be very difficult for any Republican to win any district,” he said.
Wharton said he was also pessimistic about Republican chances in the Nutmeg State’s congressional delegation in the future.
“Realistically, I think it only happens on either end of the state,” he said, as the Interstate 91 corridor “leans blue.”
Andrew Doba, a Democratic consultant in Connecticut and former member of then-Gov. Dannel P. Malloy’s staff, said he believes Democrats’ current control over the state’s congressional districts would survive any consolidation.
“It’s a part of our political process and a part of our government,” he said. “The politics will generally work themselves out. I think there are nothing but good signs for the Democratic Party in Connecticut.”
Experts said if reapportionment affects Connecticut, it would likely be felt more acutely at the federal level.
“We have some pretty important players down there,” Rose said.
Himes, he said, was influential within the centrist New Democrat Coalition as its chairman from 2017 to 2019, and Hayes, as the state’s first African-American congresswoman and part of a more diverse and progressive freshman class, “could wield influence.”
“We have a lot of bang for our buck in terms of our congressional delegation,” Schurin said.
U.S. Rep. John Larson, D-1, is on the Committee on Ways and Means and DeLauro sits on the Committee on Appropriations, Wharton noted.
“Our lawmakers sit on some pretty powerful committees,” he said.
Renfro said the number of legislators sitting in the House isn’t the only factor that determines a state’s influence and power, but it’s nevertheless important.
“If you do decrease the number of members in that delegation, you probably get less ‘pork,’” he said.
If Connecticut were to lose a congressional district, its number of electoral votes in presidential elections would also decrease from seven to six. Although Connecticut has not recently played a major role in any presidential races electorally, Alberda said it could continue to play a fairly unique role, regardless of congressional representation.
“Connecticut doesn’t get a lot of presidential visits, but if candidates air ads in solid states, they do get an investment in their return to build fundraising,” she said. “If a Democratic nominee airs a few ads in Connecticut, the return on investment is Nutmeggers donate to the campaign. We might lack in electoral votes, but we play a vital role in getting the message out in swing states.”
Political experts agree the electoral role of Connecticut, as well as most states in New England and the industrial Midwest, is diminishing as states in the South and West grow at a more rapid pace. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas, Florida and California have all grown by more than 2 million people since 2010, and other states along the Sun Belt, such as North Carolina and Georgia, lead the rest of the nation in population growth.
“The population expanding in southern states and the Sun Belt has helped the Republican Party,” Rose said. “As those states grow, I think the Democratic Party is becoming a more northern party.”
Schurin said population trends have worked in Republicans’ favor thus far, but migration could also be influencing the political makeup of historically red states; last year, he mentioned, former Democratic Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke won more than 48 percent of the vote in his Senate race against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and a number of Democrats flipped seats in the historically red state down ballot.
Additionally, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won her Senate race in Arizona, and Democratic gubernatorial candidates Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Andrew Gillum in Florida ran high-profile, competitive campaigns, all in states that voted for Republican President Donald Trump in 2016.
Alberda said since Texas is guaranteed to gain seats as the state with the largest population growth, its changing demographics can have an outsize influence nationally. Part of the demographic shift, she said, is New England residents moving out of state and taking their political values with them.
“We don’t actually pay enough attention to demographics in general; it’s a slow-moving freight train,” Renfro said. “It’s not sexy compared to scandals, but it matters a whole lot in terms of our tax base. It’s a really powerful thing right in front of us.”