The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
Three Super Bowl longshots that are worth a careful look
The NFL regular season hasn’t started yet, but that shouldn’t stop of us from fast forwarding to the end of the playoffs and looking at a few intriguing choices to win Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Ariz. The projections below aren’t a rocksolid prognostication of the eventual winner, or even the most likely participants. Instead, they are a side-byside comparison of current championship odds with my projection of each team’s chances to claim the Lombardi Trophy.
Remember, we are considering future odds for the title game, so there can be only one winning ticket. But the goal is to identify as many teams as possible with positive expected value, with the hope of turning a profit at the end of the postseason. The most efficient way to do that is by wagering on teams whose future odds appear to be more lucrative than they should be. Sometimes, that means backing a team not because it has a high chance to win, but because it offers a good risk/reward proposition.
For example, let’s say you have a choice between two wagers. One is on Team A, which we estimate has a 50% chance to win the championship at -110 odds wager $110 to win $100. The other is on Team B, which has a 5% chance to win it all at odds of +3000 — wager $100 to win $3,000. The latter is the “better” bet, with a positive expectation of $0.55 per every dollar wagered, assuming our estimates are accurate. (The first bet has a negative expectation of $0.05 lost per $1 risked.) Team A has 10 times the chance to win the Super Bowl as Team B, but the odds make it a poor bet; the long shot is much better value over the long term, even if the ticket won’t cash nearly as often.
To get a sense of how well all 32 NFL teams should perform this year we start with each team’s preseason power ranking, derived from preseason point spreads released earlier this summer. Those rankings are then adjusted for injuries, roster changes and quarterback situations: the three most impactful circumstances that can alter a team’s outlook.
The resulting projected Super Bowl chances are what you would expect: the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs are near the top and the Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans are near the bottom.
But that doesn’t mean there is no value on the board. Here are three teams that appear to be worth holding in your Super Bowl futures portfolio.
San Francisco 49ers, +1600. Trey Lance, the third pick in the 2021 draft, is the new starting quarterback for the 49ers, who have played in two of the last
three NFC championship games. A dual-threat, Lance has shown he can extend plays with his legs and get the ball out quickly to his playmakers, a cadre which includes wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle.
San Francisco’s defensive collapse during the fourth quarter of its NFC title game loss to the Rams is still lingering in many minds, but don’t forget that unit saved 2.5 points per game during the second half of the regular season according to TruMedia data, ranking a more-than-respectable 11th during that stretch. The defense boasts pass rusher Nick Bosa (the fifth-best edge rusher of 2021, according to Pro Football Focus); defensive lineman Arik Armstead (seventh best at the position in 2021, per PFF), linebacker Fred Warner (eighth among linebackers in 2021) and safety Jimmie Ward (who ranked in the top third at his position).
Philadelphia Eagles +2500. The NFC appears fairly wide open, with question marks and letdown scenarios hovering around several would-be contenders.
Tom Brady, quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has defied the aging curve, but no one should be surprised if he declines at age 45. Plus, Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen was placed on injured reserve and will be out until at least November, thinning Brady’s protection. The Green Bay Packers said goodbye to Davante Adams, one of the most prolific wide receivers in the game, with no clear replacement. The defending champion Los Angeles Rams might have some worry about quarterback Matt Stafford, who did not did not participate in any preseason games due to what Coach Sean McVay called “abnormal” right elbow soreness. Receiver Van Jefferson suffered a left knee injury that required surgery during training
camp, while running backs Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. have been dealing with “soft-tissue injuries,” per McVay. Finally, the Dallas Cowboys got lucky last year and should regress, possibly winning less than 10 games, all of which could open the door for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philadelphia, coming off a 9-8 season that was good for a wild-card berth, made a sneaky smart addition to its secondary when it acquired defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from the New Orleans Saints (another under-theradar NFC contender). Gardner-Johnson, who is expected to be converted to safety full-time with the Eagles, is credited with 161 combined tackles, three sacks, 28 defended passes and five interceptions since he was drafted in the fourth round in 2019.
Las Vegas Raiders +4000. The Raiders were a fairly quiet 10-7 last year before a solid offseason. The team added star wide receiver Davante Adams, giving quarterback Derek Carr an elite target to throw to and a trio of capable pass catchers in Adams, Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. Adams should certainly help improve a Raiders offense that converted just 52% of its red-zone opportunities, the sixth-worst rate in 2021. Adams caught 18 of 27 red-zone targets for Green Bay last season and accounted for nine more points than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each redzone throw. That’s more than any receiver on last year’s Raiders roster save Renfrow (12 more points than expected).
On defense, Chandler Jones, another offseason acquisition, is an exceptional pass rusher who will help take some of the pressure off the secondary. Pro Football Focus ranked him the eighth-best pass rusher of 2021 after he tallied 101/2 sacks (his seventh season with double-digit sacks) and 47 total pressures.