Experts: Egg prices expected to drop

New data shows the retail cost of eggs dipped last month from record highs, and some experts are predicting prices will have a great fall later this year.

The average price of a dozen eggs in the U.S. was about $4.21 in February 2023, according to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That’s more than double the price in February 2022 of about $2.00.

But, the price of a dozen eggs last month was down significantly from January when prices reached $4.82.

Officials say they expect prices to continue to drop.

USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said during a presentation at the annual USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum last month that wholesale egg prices are projected to fall nearly 30% in 2023. If that prediction holds, it would put the average price nationwide at about $2.07.

Stew Leonard’s, a local supermarket chain in Connecticut, recently lowered the retail cost of their 12 and 18 packs of eggs by $1, said company spokesperson Meghan Bell.

“However, while the cost of conventional eggs went down in Jan/Feb, they went back up another 60 cents in March,” Bell said in an email.

Egg prices in the U.S. began to rise in January 2022.

Connecticut Department of Agriculture spokesperson Rebecca Eddy cited a January 2023 report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture which explained one major factor driving up egg prices is the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

The virus has decimated the population of hens, leading to a sharp decline in egg production and triggering a spike in prices.

The report said “continued outbreaks of HPAI in commercial table egg layer flocks since February 2022 have led to the depopulation of over 44 million laying hens. To date, depopulations at commercial layer facilities have reduced domestic supplies of eggs by roughly 7.5% per month, on average. Meanwhile, consumer prices for shell eggs have been on the rise as compared to December 2021.”

According to the report, when large numbers of hens die in a short span of time, it can impact egg production for several months until the facilities are cleaned and restocked with new hens, according to the report.

One adult hen typically lays around 24 eggs each month, but it can take up to 5 months for young hens to reach their maximum egglaying potential, the report said.

To deal with limited supply, “grocery retailers have worked to balance heightened consumer demand with tighter supplies by scaling back their weekly featuring activities for shell eggs in store circulars,” the report said.

Stew Leonard’s has not put eggs on sale because supply is strained, Bell said.

“Stew Leonard’s buy direct from family owned farms in Pennsylvania’s Amish Country and, to date, we have been very fortunate that their farms haven’t been as badly impacted as other farms,” Bell said in an email.

A recent USDA report that offers information daily about egg prices to retailers in the Northeast region, which includes Connecticut and other New England states, as well as parts of

New York and New Jersey, said a dozen large eggs ranged about $2.89 to $3.03. At the same time last year, it ranged from $1.28 to $1.42.

As of Jan. 1, the U.S. layer flock included 373 million birds, with 306 million (82 percent) of them being table egg layers, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. The overall flock size has decreased by 5 percent compared to the same time last year, while the number of egglaying birds has dropped by 6 percent.

Wayne Pesce, president of the Connecticut Food Association, said the flu is still having an impact around the country and will continue to be an issue throughout the spring.

“Egg prices will continue to remain volatile over the next few months, eventually stabilizing in the spring,” he said in an email.