Last summer’s star trades haven’t paid off in NBA playoffs

In a delicious coincidence that might not actually be coincidental, the Minnesota Timberwolves, Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers find themselves in the exact same spot entering Monday’s playoff action: Facing a 3-1 deficit and staring at the strong likelihood of a first-round exit.

Remember, these three teams all took the plunge on star trades last summer, forking over young players and first-round picks to make deals they felt would deliver meaningful short-term results. All three teams were stuck in the middle last season, and all three chose action over patience: Rudy Gobert headed to Minnesota, Dejounte Murray moved to Atlanta and Donovan Mitchell set up shop in Cleveland.

The playoffs render the most convincing and lasting verdicts on big trades, and recent history has favored the bold in many cases: The Toronto Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard and won the 2019 title, the Los Angeles Lakers traded for Anthony Davis and won the 2020 title, the Milwaukee Bucks traded for Jrue Holiday and won the 2021 title, and the Golden State Warriors traded for Andrew Wiggins and won the 2022 title. For aspiring contenders in non-marquee markets, that track record creates a strong incentive to try to keep up with the Joneses.

But the Gobert, Murray and Mitchell deals have not yet lifted their respective teams into the title conversation, and Minnesota and Atlanta would almost certainly be in a better long-term position if they could go back in time and hit the undo button. Though these three teams have achieved differing levels of success, their shortcomings should serve as a warning light to executives who are deciding whether to mortgage their teams’ futures this summer.

Consider the Timberwolves, who squeaked into the playoffs through the play-in tournament and narrowly avoided a sweep against the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. The Utah Jazz extorted the Timberwolves for four-first round picks, four rotation-quality players and additional pieces in the Gobert trade, which has been an utter flop. Gobert’s offensive limitations have made him a poor fit with Anthony Edwards and Denver has dissected Minnesota’s defense, to say nothing of the French center’s infamous in-game punch of teammate Kyle Anderson.

Remarkably, the Timberwolves won four fewer games this season with Gobert than in the previous season and owe the 30-year-old big man roughly $130 million over the next three seasons. Minnesota’s twin towers vision has been so underwhelming that it now must consider a coaching change or summer trades involving Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Timberwolves’ grave miscalculation was not waiting an extra year or two to see how the 21-year-old Edwards developed into life as a franchise player. Edwards needs a distribution-minded guard to grow with and as much space as possible to express his athletic gifts. If Minnesota had four first-round picks to trade this summer, the last thing it would do is make Edwards’s life more difficult by clogging the paint with an aging, nonshooting center who needs pick-and-roll touches and has a shaky postseason track record.

Atlanta made a similar mistake when it traded three firstround picks and additional assets to the San Antonio Spurs for Murray, who was supposed to form an all-star backcourt with Trae Young. This deal made some sense on paper: Murray could lighten Young’s heavy offensive burden and fill a big hole when it came to perimeter defense.

Unfortunately, the trade wasn’t transformational: Atlanta won two fewer games than the previous season and landed in the play-in tournament again. Young and Murray both missed out on all-star selections, and they have been thoroughly outclassed by the Boston Celtics through four playoff games. The immense posttrade disappointment has already prompted a front-office overhaul, a coaching change and, more recently, trade rumors involving Young.

To make matters worse, Murray could be suspended for Tuesday’s Game 5 after he angrily made contact with a referee on his way off the court following a Game 4 loss. There’s no good reason to believe that the Young and Murray partnership will be much better next season, and the Hawks would have been better off resolving their frontcourt questions last summer before splurging on a co-star who can become a free agent in 2024.

An extra year of patience might also have helped the Hawks realize that Young’s shot selection, ball dominance and poor defensive impact make him a flawed centerpiece. Imagine if Atlanta could pursue Young trades this summer from a position of strength and with draft picks in hand to aid their retooling efforts.

Among these three teams, Cleveland has the most to show for its trade and the most cause for optimism going forward. Acquiring Mitchell from the Jazz cost them Lauri Markkanen, three first-round picks and other significant assets, but the 26-year-old guard responded with an all-NBA caliber season. Importantly, Mitchell proved to be a strong culture fit alongside a rising core that includes Evan Mobley, Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen, and he has a long-term contract that ties him to Cleveland.

Adding Mitchell helped the Cavaliers win seven more games this season than 2021-22, and it lifted them out of the East’s play-in tournament. However, No. 4 seed Cleveland squandered its home-court advantage against the No. 5 New York Knicks, and Mitchell has been outplayed by Jalen Brunson for the second straight postseason. Meanwhile, Mobley and Garland have been inconsistent in their first playoff runs, and the Cavaliers’ lack of competent wings has come back to bite them.

Of course, Mitchell’s explosive scoring ability was supposed to help paper over Cleveland’s growing pains and weak second unit. After scoring just 11 points on 18 shots in a Game 4 loss on Sunday, Mitchell accepted the blame and admitted that he “didn’t show up for my guys.”

New York has three chances to end Cleveland’s season, starting with Wednesday’s Game 5. If that happens, the Cavaliers might be left wondering whether Mitchell can be the No. 1 scoring option on a title team given his smaller size, streaky offense and unimpressive defensive impact.

Continued development by Mobley and Garland could help the Cavaliers achieve better balance in the future, but they will have a hard time adding difference-makers on the wing if they choose to keep and pay all of their core pieces. It’s also possible that the trade market for second-tier stars will cool some this summer, and Cleveland could regret buying high on Mitchell while simultaneously selling low on Markkanen, who earned 2023 all-star honors.

There’s a shared lesson from these three teams: Shortcut trades are trendy and hard to resist, but they probably won’t deliver transformational results unless transformational players are involved. Betting big can work out if a team already has an established A-list superstar on its roster or if its trade target is a genuine A-lister. For teams that can’t meet those criteria, it’s best to think twice about whether the proposed deal is really worth all those prospects and draft picks.