Accurately diagnosing causes of extreme weather

Patients often present with a slew of symptoms, and as doctors, we work backwards to figure out a diagnosis with the best explanation. What blood tests should we order? What other medical history is relevant to the case? These are the types of questions we end up investigating in order to reach a diagnosis.

However, this framework of symptoms, investigation and diagnosis is not only useful for human health, but also can be applied to our planet. In the latest news cycle we have heard stories of historic flooding, shattering of global temperature records, and closure of local beaches. However, these stories are usually reported in isolation, often mixed in with the happenings of local affairs and highway crashes. But what if these were not isolated events, but rather all symptoms of a larger disease? How do we connect everyday news with the bigger picture? Let’s start with the latest headline:

7/20, NBC Connecticut: “Some state beaches closed due to high level of bacteria”

Silver Sands State Park among other beaches across the northeast United States reported closures due to high levels of bacteria. The types of bacterial indicators suggested fecal contamination from both human and animal sources. Exposures to these bacteria can lead to diarrheal illness, respiratory problems and skin reactions . Often, the culprit for bacterial contamination is leakage from sewage facilities. But if this was just one faulty sewage plant we wouldn’t have beach closures in multiple states. So what could explain all this?

7/16, FOX61: “Flooding reported across Connecticut”

Flooding is not a new phenomenon, however, the intensity and frequency have surely increased in recent memory. As Gov. Lamont put it, “These storms are biblical in terms of the torrential rainfall you get and are happening more frequently.” When water levels suddenly rise they can cause overflow from sewage facilities and contaminate local rivers thereby spreading disease-causing bacteria onto our beaches. Therefore flooding can explain the bacteria, but what explains the flooding?

7/6, CT Insider: “Earth hit an unofficial record high temperature this week”

While it is difficult to scientifically determine if a single weather event has been directly caused by climate change, we know that as temperatures have increased, the likelihood of extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, have increased. Warmer air allows for higher retention of moisture. Since there is more water vapor stored in the air, when it does rain, the precipitation can be heavy and sudden. These floods are not random, isolated events, but rather symptoms of a changing climate. So what is behind our warming climate?

Greenhouse gas emissions, predominantly the direct burning of fossil fuels, have largely contributed to the global average temperature rise since pre-industrial times. Greenhouse gasses trap heat in our atmosphere, thereby warming our planet.

So while we won’t see the headline: “Burning of fossil fuels closes local beaches,” the trail of evidence certainly points us in that direction. Although the news reports stories individually, it’s up to us to connect the dots and ask the follow-up question: why? The effects of climate change are all around us, we just have to pay closer attention to the symptoms.

So now that we have a diagnosis, what is the treatment? In medicine, we often have to treat the current problem but also prevent long-term worsening of disease. In the climate space we call these concepts climate adaptation and mitigation.

In the short term we need to adapt to climate change and improve public messaging tools. We should deploy accurate monitoring and warning systems for flash floods and advise accordingly. We need to adapt our infrastructure to a world characterized by more frequent flooding, drought and heat.

In both the short and long term, we need to mitigate climate change by rapidly decreasing emissions. We need to empower ourselves and demand change from our elected officials. There are serious health implications if we allow emissions to run rampant.

Lastly, if you were wondering about the answer to the case presented in the beginning, these symptoms are characteristic of Lyme disease. But what does Lyme disease have to do with climate change? Well, you’ll have to do a little diagnostic work-up yourself.

Ned Gerard/Hearst Connecticut Media A local was closed to swimmers due to high bacteria counts following heavy rains last year.