Early returns indicate polls will be busy
Officials in the Lehigh Valley see signs of high voter turnout Tuesday
As indicators like voter registration and absentee ballots pile up, political observers don't have to squint too hard to predict unusually high voter turnout for Tuesday's midterm election.
In the Lehigh Valley and across the country, officials are anticipating levels of voter participation usually associated with the busiest election cycles. President Donald Trump's polarizing effect on American politics has stoked hyperpartisanship and political scientists expect that will drive many more people to the polls than usual in a nonpresidential election year.
“We may have to go back several decades to find a midterm election with this level of turnout,” said G. Terry Madonna, a Franklin and Marshall College pollster and political science professor.
The president's effect is carrying over to elections that typically draw around 40 percent of eligible voters, Madonna said. Opponents of Trump's agenda are motivated to deliver the House of Representatives to the Democrats to check his
power; supporters want to keep Congress under Republican control. Voters recognize this election has high stakes, and they're acting accordingly, he said.
Similar predictions are popping up across the country. In Maine, Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap predicted about 65 percent of registered voters will turn out.
In Illinois, 840,000 people already cast an early vote as of Wednesday evening, surpassing the 791,000 voters who took advantage of early voting in 2014. Wisconsin, Florida and Nevada exceeded their 2014 early voter turnouts as well.
Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley appear to be no different, although Valley election officials either could not or would not share turnout estimates for Tuesday. Still, officials said they expect polls to be buzzing Tuesday.
“I have no idea what the turnout is going to be, but it's going to be a lot,” Lehigh County's Chief Clerk of Elections Tim Benyo said Wednesday.
“With all the interest out there, I expect we'll have a good turnout. What a good percentage is means something different for everyone,” said Northampton County Director of Administration Charles Dertinger, who oversees the county's voter registration office.
Election officials and political scientists point to a handful of trends to back up their claims. The number of newly registered voters has surged across the state and the region. Democrats in particular have seen an increase in these voters, more than tripling the number of new voters ahead of the 2014 midterm elections. At the same time, existing voters are switching their party affiliation at previously unseen rates, signaling they're tuned into this election and picking sides.
Officials also point to the number of absentee ballots cast ahead of Election Day. Through Thursday, absentee ballots cast in Northampton County jumped by 117 percent compared with 2014.
In Lehigh County, absentee ballots jumped 102 percent from 2014 levels through Tuesday.
Statewide, the number of absentee ballots increased 59 percent as of Friday morning. All those numbers were expected to increase by the Friday afternoon deadline.
The spike in absentee ballots isn't limited to one political party. The number of absentee ballots submitted by Democratic, Republican and other voters more than doubled in both Lehigh and Northampton counties. Democrats appear to have submitted the most absentee ballots so far, but typically Republicans tend to cast the highest number of absentee ballots, Madonna said.
All those trends are causing Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College, to predict higher than usual turnout across Pennsylvania, but not to historic levels. Unlike states such as Colorado, where early voting is allowed, Pennsylvania has more restrictive laws about voting. As a result, he's predicting turnout to be around 45 percent.
“Pennsylvania has always been in the middle of the pack, even in the low end, when it comes to turnout rates,” he said.
But in places with competi-
tive congressional districts, like Bucks County or the Lehigh Valley, the rates should be higher, he said. Redistricting has turned the Lehigh Valley's 7th Congressional District, which encompasses Lehigh and Northampton counties and parts of Monroe County, into a critical swing race.
“If you look at just the Lehigh Valley, 50 percent turnout is attainable given the context of the race,” Borick said.
The 7th Congressional District features Republican Marty Nothstein, Democrat Susan Wild and Libertarian Tim Silfies. The trio are campaigning for a seat left vacant by the retirement of Charlie Dent.
Borick's estimate paled in comparison with how local party officials talked about voter enthusiasm this election cycle. People on both sides of the political divide feel strongly about Trump and are prepared to take a stand, they said.
Ed Hozza, chairman of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee, said people of all political affiliations have been telling Democratic volunteers they're tired of the president's behavior.
“We're encouraged the good people of the Lehigh Valley want their voices to be heard. I'm not surprised by this groundswell of support,” he said.
Lee Snover, chairwoman of the Northampton County Republican Committee, said she's expecting voters to trounce Northampton County's 38 percent turnout from 2014 but fall short of the 67 percent turnout from 2016. Her committee held a little-advertised, get-out-the-vote meeting for local volunteers this week, that attracted more than 200 people, she said. People are motivated to make sure their party carries the day.
“I think it's carryover from the 2016 election. I think people feel there is unfinished business,” she said.
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