Pa. still on pace to lose congressional seat

If you thought this year’s redistricting fight was contentious, the round of new congressional boundaries to be drawn in 2021 will involve another challenge: removing at least one district.

The latest analysis of population data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Pennsylvania remains on track to have 17 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, a loss of one seat due to slower population growth compared to other states.

That’s better than New York, which the Virginia-based Election Data Services projects will lose two congressional seats. Others pegged to lose representation are mainly in the Midwest and Northeast: Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island, West Virginia and Alabama.

Those districts would shift to fastergrowing states: Texas could pick up three seats; Florida may gain two; and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon would gain one each under the projections.

The figures are preliminary, with Election Data Services President Kim Brace cautioning that a number of factors — from natural disasters to how well the census is conducted — could alter the projections.

For Pennsylvania, the projection of losing one seat has remained steady in past analyses of annual population data. Losing a seat would mean fewer legislators advocating for Pennsylvania on Capitol Hill, and one fewer electoral vote in the 2024 presidential contest.