Birds are capable but will come up short

PHILADELPHIA – The Eagles are capable of returning to the NFC Championship Game.

For that to happen, they must win the turnover battle Sunday afternoon against the topseeded Saints. If they end up minus-2 in that category, as was the case in last week's 16-15 victory over the Bears, their task is going to be much more difficult.

The offense needs to score roughly 30 points, control the ball and keep quarterback Drew Brees off the field.

But perhaps the biggest factor in determining Sunday's outcome will be if the Birds, keyed by their front four, can limit New Orleans' big-play capabilities. It figures to be a challenge.

In the Saints' 48-7 victory over the Eagles on Nov. 18, Brees and his offense averaged 11.7 yards per pass attempt, plus 4.7 yards per run, and held a 37:34 to 22:26 time-of-possession advantage. New Orleans produced 14 plays of 14 yards or more, including five of at least 30 yards by four different guys (not counting Brees).

Brees, who will turn 40 on Tuesday, boasts a host of playmakers, led by running backs Alvin Kamara (883 rushing yards, 81 catches, 18 touchdowns) and Mark Ingram (645 rushing yards) and Pro Bowl receiver Michael Thomas (125 catches for 1,405 yards).

Brees is effective throwing short and long, putting him at an elite level, as evidenced by his league-best 115.7 QB rating. The Saints' ground attack is formidable, too.

"I think stopping the run is one of the most important things in football," said Eagles defensive end Michael Bennett. "It's one of the most overlooked things. A lot of teams focus on the pass and how many sacks they get, but if you can stop the run, teams usually win a lot of games."

When Brees does drop back, his ability to get the ball out quickly and make good decisions explains why he's one of the NFL's finest at handling the blitz.

New Orleans QBs were only sacked 20 times during the regular season, second-best in the NFL. Brees took 17 sacks in 15 games, and the Eagles did not get to him once. That has to change if they plan on winning.

"He's smart, his O-line is good, but more than anything, his timing's really good," said Eagles defensive end Chris Long. "He's aware of who he's playing each week and I think when he knows he's got a challenge like us up front, he's going to lean on that O-line and get the ball out quicker. He's done it for almost 20 years. There's nothing he hasn't seen."

The Birds' defense cannot allow Brees to be in second-andshort and third-and-short situations because it gives him too many viable options. If there are more second and 9s and third and 8s, the Eagles' front four can concentrate on getting to Brees.

Long, Bennett, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Tim Jernigan and the rest of the D-linemen understand how essential it is

SAM FARMER’S NFC PICK

Eagles at Saints

The Eagles have defied logic before, so an upset is possible. But the Saints are trending up defensively, they should be able to run the ball, and the Superdome is a really tough place to play.

Saints 30, Eagles 24.

for them to pressure Brees and what it'd mean to the defense.

"We have so many players on the defensive line," Bennett said. "We're the engine of the team."

One encouraging sign is the Eagles are healthier than they were Nov. 18, especially in the secondary.

Another positive would seem to be the improving red-zone defense. The Saints scored touchdowns four of the five times they reached the Eagles' 20-yard line, but the Bears were 0 for 3 in last week's wild-card playoff round.

"A team like the Saints is going to move the ball against any team they play," Long said. "The red zone becomes really important. Making the Bears kick field goals was important. It makes a difference."

Just as it will likely go a long way toward deciding what happens Sunday.

For the Eagles to win, the defense knows what's on the line. And the line knows what it has to do.

Moore’s Prediction:

28, Eagles 24 Saints

Tom Moore is a freelance writer.