On the starting blocks, or the finish line
Rotation’s back end faces a pivotal year, with no help in the minors
The Phillies’ starting rotation comprises a righthanded ace, a lefthanded comer, and three guys with no job security.
Zack Wheeler, last year’s Cy Young bridesmaid, is in the third season of his five-year, $118 million contract. Ranger Suarez, who went 3-2 with a 1.51 ERA in 12 starts to end the season, will be arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2023, which gives the Phillies three more years of control past 2022.
Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, and
Zach Eflin? Who knows. A big year could mean big bucks for each of them. How will that reality — that pressure — affect their performances in 2022?
They say it won’t, but that sort of reply contradicts human nature. They’ll be auditioning, and nobody’s natural at an audition. At any rate, how they perform will mean everything for these reinforced, reinvested Phillies. A team can have an MVP like Bryce Harper, an ace like Wheeler, the potential of Suarez, and tons of dynamite in the lineup, but if the other team is scoring four runs in the first four innings in three of every five games, none of that stuff will matter.
The Phils exceeded the luxury tax for the first time this year by adding sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, and while they’ll have about $100 million to spend next year, if they want to win, they’ll splurge on starting pitching. Because 60% of the Phillies’ current rotation might not be Phillies in 2023 and the anemic farm system is two years away from providing relief for the starters.
This isn’t an unprecedented situation, but it is unusual. How unusual? Well, consider the fact that the Phillies exited 2021 with zero starting spots open for 2022, and that rotation was nothing special last season; it ranked 16th among 30 teams in ERA, at 4.25.
A shoulder problem in December and a bout with the flu last week pushed Wheeler back at least a week. So Aaron Nola, a one-time All-Star, back in 2018, will be the team’s opening day starter for the fifth straight year, this time against the visiting A’s on April 8. He’ll make $15 million in 2022. He has a club option of $16 million for 2023, or he’ll be
owed a $4.25 million buyout, and that would make him a 29-year-old free agent.
Kyle Gibson, a first-time All-Star last season at the age of 33, will make $7 million this season. Then he’ll be a 35-year-old free agent who entered 2022 with a 79-83 record and a 4.45 career ERA. He could use a strong 2022, which, for him, begins in Game 2.
Zach Eflin avoided his final episode of arbitration when he agreed to a $5 million contract for 2022. He’ll be a 28-year-old free agent in 2023. After a strong 2020, knee problems from five years before resurfacing in 2021, but he lasted at least six innings 14 times before shutting down for good in June. He’s expected to start Game 3 in a season that could set him up for life.
Nols
Of the three, Nola has the least to lose. Even a mediocre season wouldn’t persuade the Phillies to turn down his 2023 option, which, at $16 million, would make him the 23rd-highest-paid pitcher in 2022 (and the 20th-highest-paid pitcher in 2023 based on current contracts).
What’s mediocre? Nola was 14-14 with a 4.25 ERA in 44 starts over the last two seasons. If that’s not mediocre, it smells close enough. Even a poor season probably wouldn’t mean the end as a Phillie for Nola, who managed a 2.3 wins above replacement last season. After all, $11 million lefty Drew Smyly delivered a 0.8 WAR to the Braves last season at the age of 32, and the Cubs just signed him to a $5.25 million deal.
Pitching is precious.
Nola knows this. He said Friday that he hadn’t considered the prospects of anybody on the staff, including himself.
“I love this place. I love the guys over here,” he said. “Haven’t thought about what comes after.”