China’s response shows intentions
Pelosi’s Taiwan visit triggers revelatory reaction by Beijing
BANGKOK — China’s response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was anything but subtle — dispatching warships and military aircraft to all sides of the self-governing island democracy, and firing ballistic missiles into the waters nearby.
The dust has still not settled, with Taiwan last week conducting its own drills and Beijing announcing more maneuvers, but experts say a lot can already be gleaned from what China has done, and has not done, so far.
China will also be drawing lessons on its own military capabilities from the exercises, which more closely resembled what an actual strike on the island claimed by Beijing as its own territory would look like, and from the American and Taiwanese response.
During the nearly weeklong maneuvers that followed Pelosi’s early August visit, China sailed ships and flew aircraft regularly across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, claiming the de facto boundary did not exist, fired missiles over Taiwan itself, and challenged established norms by firing missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
“I think we are in for a risky period of testing boundaries and finding out who can achieve escalatory dominance across the diplomatic, military and economic domains,” said David Chen, an analyst with CENTRA Technology, a U.S.-based consulting firm.
Pelosi was the highestlevel member of the U.S. government to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and her visit came at a particularly sensitive
time, as Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to seek a third five-year term as leader of the ruling Communist Party later this year.
Under Xi, China has been increasingly forceful in declaring that Taiwan must be brought under its control — by force if necessary — and U.S. military officials have said that Beijing may seek a military solution within the next few years.
Tensions were already high, with China conducting military flights near Taiwan and the U.S. sailing warships through the Taiwan Strait to emphasize they are international waters.
China accuses the U.S. of encouraging the island’s independence through the sale of weapons and engagement between U.S. politicians and the island’s government.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying
called Pelosi’s visit a “serious provocation” and accused Washington of breaking the status quo and “interfering in China’s internal affairs.”
The U.S. continues to insist it has not deviated from its “one-China” policy, recognizing the government in Beijing while allowing for informal relations and defense ties with Taipei.
China held off on its maneuvers until Pelosi had left Taiwan, and turned back its forces before they approached Taiwan’s coast or territorial airspace, which showed a “modicum of restraint,” Chen said.
But, he noted, another congressional visit following Pelosi’s triggered the announcement of more exercises.
“We are likely entering a period of regular military demonstrations in and around China’s maritime
domain,” he said.
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the scale and coordination of the exercises suggested China was looking past Taiwan toward establishing dominance in the western Pacific.
That would include controlling the East and South China Seas via the Taiwan Strait, and having the capability to impose a blockade to prevent the U.S. and its allies from coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack.
Short of an armed conflict, a blockade of the Taiwan Strait — a significant thoroughfare for global trade — could have major implications for supply chains at a time when the world is already facing disruptions.
Taiwan is a crucial provider of computer chips for the global economy.
Though ostensibly a reaction to Pelosi’s visit, it is
clear China’s exercises had been long planned, said Mareike Ohlberg, a senior fellow in the Asia Program of the German Marshall Fund think tank.
“I do think they were looking for an opportunity to escalate,” she said. “This is not something you prep after the announcement (of the visit) and then pull off that quickly and that easily.”
The U.S. Department of Defense has acknowledged China’s military, saying it has become a true rival and has surpassed the American military in some areas.
The reserved American response to the recent exercises seemed calculated to avoid any accidental confrontation that could have escalated the situation, but could also feed China’s confidence, Ohlberg said.
“The base of China’s thinking is that the U.S. is in decline and that China is on the rise,
and I guess the response would have been seen in Beijing as confirming that thinking,” she said.
Following Pelosi’s visit, China released an updated “white paper” on Taiwan outlining how it envisioned an eventual annexation of the island would look.
It said it would follow the “one country, two systems” format applied in Hong Kong, which critics say has been undermined by a national security law that asserts Beijing’s control over speech and political participation. The concept has been thoroughly rejected in Taiwanese public opinion polls in which respondents have overwhelmingly favored their current de facto independence.
Tellingly, the new white paper discarded a pledge in its previous iteration not to send troops or government officials to an annexed Taiwan.