Ukraine weighing risk of offensive
Timing is critical to a strike that would break the stalemate
KYIV, Ukraine — For months Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have waged war across a 1,500mile frontline, inflicting casualties, fighting to exhaustion and making slow gains in territory when not suffering costly setbacks.
After beginning with the Russian seizure of part of southern Ukraine and a failed strike at the capital, Kyiv, and then pivoting to a bloody artillery battle in the country’s east, the war is entering a third chapter. A battlefield stalemate prevails amid anxious uncertainty over whether — and when — Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive to try to break the deadlock.
Both sides are preparing for a protracted war, but Ukraine has greater incentive to try to avoid it with potentially risky maneuvers as early as this fall — before the rainy season turns the countryside into impassable bogs, or energy shortages and soaring costs undermine European support.
“An offensive is risky,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia, assessing Ukraine’s options.
“If it fails, the outcome could affect external support,’’ he said. “On the other hand, Kyiv likely sees this as a window of opportunity, beyond which lies the uncertainty of a protracted war against a Russian army that has had time to entrench.”
From Ukraine’s view, the mostly static trench fighting cannot go on indefinitely. Leaving Russia in control of much of the southern coastline would cripple Ukraine’s already-cratering economy and it would also give space to Russia to solidify control in areas it has captured.
President Vladimir Putin is also facing political pressure to secure a battlefield breakthrough — especially after Ukraine’s attacks on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, and the car bombing that killed an ultranationalist commentator last weekend. But numerous signs suggest Putin will settle on a strategy of plodding offense designed to exhaust and kill Ukrainian forces. The latest evidence came Thursday, when the Kremlin published Putin’s order increasing the target size of the armed forces by 137,000, to 1.15 million.
Analysts said the decree hinted Putin was preparing for a long and grinding war.
“Expectations that this will end by Christmas or that this will end by next spring” are misguided, said Ruslan Pukhov, a defense analyst who runs the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a privately owned think tank in Moscow.
While Putin may be content with a protracted standoff, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine is in some ways fighting against the clock.
“The very difficult state of our economy, the constant risks of air and missile attacks and the general fatigue of the population from the difficulties of war will work against Ukraine” over time, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister, wrote in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper. He said the military should be prepared to advance, rather than defend.
Stage-managed elections to justify annexation could come as early as next month, Western officials say, putting more pressure on Zelenskyy to launch an offensive.
But several military analysts say there is a disconnect between Ukrainian civilian leaders, pressing for a major victory, and military leaders who want to ensure they have sufficient troops and combat power before conducting a major offensive.
Over the last month, the Ukrainians have pivoted to the new strategy of so-called “deep war” — hitting targets far behind the front — after months of artillery duels and street fighting in the eastern region of Luhansk, which fell under Russian control by early July.
Using long-range, precision guided rockets provided by the United States and others, the Ukrainian military has been striking Russian weapons depots, bases, command centers and troop positions deep into occupied territory, including Crimea, the peninsula Putin seized in 2014.
Ukraine has for months been telegraphing plans for the major battle in the south, the types of weapons it has requested from Western allies and the tactics it pursues on the battlefield offering clues to its strategy.
Tellingly, a recent U.S. military assistance package included armored vehicles with mine-clearing attachments that would be used in a ground advance, suggesting preparations for the opening of a new phase of the war. Ukraine pushed back Russian forces that were in disarray in the battle for Kyiv last winter, but has yet to demonstrate it can overrun well-fortified Russian defenses.
The British government said Saturday it was giving Ukraine underwater drones and training sailors to clear mines from the ravaged country’s coastline.