How Democrats won big in Pa., Valley
Early data suggests increased turnout, young voters were key to victories nationwide
Tuesday’s election was a great night for Democrats in Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley.
Abortion and opposition to far-right politics helped propel the party’s candidates to victory in the governor’s, Senate and congressional races, upsetting high hopes for Republican candidates.
Democratic victories were a shocking upset of political precedent: Midterm elections almost always lead to big gains for the party not in the White House, and many polls predicted a “red wave” of Republican victories.
Where did the Lehigh Valley fit into those nationwide trends?
Lehigh Valley voter breakdown
Lehigh Valley voter participation was higher than the statewide average. While 55.7% Pennsylvanians cast ballots this election, nearly 58% of Lehigh County residents and 59% of Northampton County did so.
Voters in the region helped send Democratic candidates John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro to higher office. The majority of voters in both counties voted for the Democratic nominees for Senate and governor, though the margins were narrower in Northampton.
More than 53% of Lehigh County voters chose Fetterman over Oz to replace Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, and 58% chose Josh Shapiro over Doug Mastriano to replace Gov. Tom Wolf, who was term limited.
Northampton County, traditionally a bellwether county that mirrors the state electorate as a whole, swung toward Democrats more narrowly, with 51% of voters choosing Fetterman and 55% choosing Shapiro.
The Lehigh Valley also narrowly re-elected Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild for a third term against a challenge from businesswoman Lisa Scheller, a key race targeted by Republican groups. Voters turned out in Wild’s favor in Northampton and Lehigh, overcoming Scheller’s wins in the smaller, and more Republican, Carbon and Monroe counties.
Lehigh Valley Democrats also had a good night in state House and Senate races, though no Democrats challenging Republican incumbents prevailed. But voters in newly redrawn districts in Lehigh County elected state senate candidate Nick Miller and state house candidate Josh Siegel, two newcomer Democrats, to open seats with no incumbents.
Extreme candidates turned away moderate voters
Republicans had expected to have a strong night in Pennsylvania.
But Sam Chen, a Republican strategist and campaign manager for Kevin Dellicker — whom Scheller defeated in the May Republican primary — said despite those high expectations, he never expected the wave of GOP winners.
In his view, the entire Republican party ticket in Pennsylvania was dragged down by Doug Mastriano, the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor who espoused extreme far-right views and consistently trailed Shapiro by double digits in the polls.
“Candidates matter, and if you run poor candidates, especially in Pennsylvania where people split their tickets, it doesn’t matter what party they’re in,” Chen said. “I do think there is some MAGA fatigue.”
Pennsylvania, and particularly the Lehigh Valley, have a long history supporting moderate candidates, and far-right candidates like Mastriano are not viable to win statewide, some said.
“Mastriano lost by a huge margin because he was just too extreme, and I think it caused your moderate Republicans, not your Trump Republicans, to say, ‘This is all too crazy,’ ” said Lori McFarland, chair of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee.
Fears of extremism and threats to democracy were top of mind for Lehigh Valley voters hitting the polls Tuesday.
Julia Rodriguez has lived in Bethlehem for over 50 years but originally hails from Puerto Rico. Rodriguez, whose daughter Miriam translated from Spanish, has voted every year since she was 18 and encourages her family to do the same.
Rodriguez said she was voting for Democrats this year because she worries that “democracy is dwindling down.”
The abortion issue
But what might have swung many Pennsylvania races in Democrats’ favor was the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June, which ended the constitutional right to abortion. Nationwide polling shows the move was widely unpopular and a majority of Americans support legal abortion, at least in some instances.
Many Democrats, including Wild, Shapiro, Fetterman and state House candidates, campaigned on preserving abortion rights, which remain legal in Pennsylvania.
“There were clear indications [the Roe v. Wade decision] had shifted the nature of this cycle, and helped Democrats find some energy in a year they might otherwise not have,” said Christopher Borick, professor of political science at Muhlenberg College. “You look at the 7th congressional district, and I have to believe it could have been a different story without abortion being much more salient of an issue.”
Voter turnout was up in Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley compared to 2018’s midterms, showing that abortion may have been a key issue that turned out infrequent voters to the polls.
Travis Murray, who works for Uline and lives in Bethlehem, said he is “not much for politics,” but voted this year at the behest of his fiancée. He said he voted for Democratic candidates because he “absolutely” does not agree with Republican-backed restrictions on abortion.
Michael Prichard, a Nazareth resident, said he voted in the 2020 election, but before that had never voted in his 39 years. He said his number one issue this year was preserving abortion rights.
“I have a wife and a daughter, and I want them to make their own decisions,” Prichard said.
Young voters boost Democrats
While concrete data on voter turnout by demographics is not yet available, early predictions and data suggest young voters also were key to Democratic victories nationwide.
Around 27% of voters between ages 18 and 29 voted in this election, according to an early estimate from the Tufts University Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning. Youth turnout is usually around 20% during midterm elections.
Alex Wagner, a senior at Muhlenberg College and director of Muhlenberg Democrats, said college students were motivated to vote this year like never before.
“The enthusiasm this time around was something I have never seen,” Wagner said. “A lot of people were really energized to vote.”
He volunteered as a poll watcher at Muhlenberg’s polling place on campus, and saw a steady stream of students come and go throughout the day. Abortion was a key issue turning college students out, he said.
Molly Smith and Tim Chrissinger are first-year students at Lehigh University. The pair voted for Democrats including Wild, Fetterman and Shapiro because those candidates have vowed to protect abortion rights, LGBT rights and the environment.
“We don’t want things to be going backward,” Chrissinger said.
They both voted for the first time.
“It’s great to finally have a say,” Smith said.