Guaido might soon be out as Venezuela’s opposition leader
CARACAS, Venezuela — Juan Guaido swept to international renown in 2019 during a euphoric anti-government protest when he declared Venezuela’s authoritarian president an illegitimate leader and himself the interim leader.
It was a major and bold move backed by the United States and dozens of other nations and the most serious threat to President Nicolas Maduro’s authoritarian government.
But with Maduro still in place, it seems Guaido’s mandate might be nearing its end.
In a vote held last week by the opposition legislature that exists parallel to Maduro’s government, Guaido’s colleagues voted overwhelmingly to end his interim government.
The decision is not final: A second session scheduled for Thursday will have to confirm it, although analysts believe the initial vote will likely stand. But it was the clearest sign yet that most of the Venezuelan opposition believes Guaido cannot achieve their stated goal — Maduro’s ouster and the restoration of democracy — and they must pursue a different strategy.
It was also a blow to the United States, which threw its support behind Guaido and continues to call him the country’s interim president, even as other nations have backed away.
A total of 72 representatives voted last Thursday to eliminate the interim government, while 24 voted to keep it and nine voted to abstain.
The three opposition political parties supporting the end of the interim government said the “political process” that began four years ago with the recognition of Guaido as president
“is not perceived as an option for real political change.”
The strategy in place under Guaido “has not reached the expected liberation objectives and the country demands new paths that lead us toward democracy,” the message continued.
Venezuela has been in the grips of an economic, political and humanitarian crisis since 2014, led by a government claiming socialist ideals that has gutted the country’s democratic institutions and left much of the country impoverished. Seven million people — 25% of the population — have fled in recent years, with a growing number of them headed toward the United States.
In 2019, Guaido, a student activist-turned-legislator, took the helm of the country’s legislature, then the last major institution in the country controlled by the opposition.
Amid large-scale protests against the Maduro government, he invoked an article of the constitution that transfers power to the head of the National Assembly
if the presidency becomes vacant.
A 2018 election won by Maduro had already been declared a sham by the United States, the European Union, the Organization of American States and others, and Guaido used that to claim that the president’s mandate was illegitimate.
Guaido soon had support from Venezuelans, the diplomatic recognition of around 60 countries and staunch U.S. backing — and was able to temporarily unite the country’s fractured opposition.
Since then, the opposition has succeeded in getting Maduro to agree to a political dialogue in Mexico, which is set to continue in January after more than a year. As a part of those talks, Maduro has agreed to allow some Venezuelan funds frozen abroad to be used as humanitarian aid within his country.
But the opposition is still far from its ultimate goal: Maduro’s removal. Opposition leaders are pushing him toward allowing free and fair conditions in a presidential election already scheduled for 2024.