Finding the leverage
3 matchups the Eagles have to win in order to take down the Chiefs
The strongest argument for the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII is a simple one. Too simple, probably, but worth a thought. The Eagles have the better roster top to bottom, but football games are often won by the best players on the field. The Chiefs can at least make the argument that they have the top three: tight end Travis Kelce, defensive tackle Chris Jones and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. They can also argue that they have the best coach. Or, at least, the best play-caller. (Nick Sirianni’s game management has been the best in the league.) Let’s talk some fear into ourselves ...
1) Jason Kelce vs. Chris Jones
The Eagles have faced some good defensive tackles this season, but they haven’t faced one like Jones. Past Super Bowls have demonstrated the extent to which an interior defensive lineman can disrupt a game.
Just last year we saw Aaron Donald dominate the proceedings with two of the Rams’ seven sacks of Joe Burrow. That’s the type of force Jones is right now for the Chiefs. The seventh-year defensive tackle might have been the MVP of last week’s AFC championship game with two sacks, five quarterback hits and three tackles for a loss in Kansas City’s win over the Bengals. This, after a regular season in which he racked up 15 ½ sacks and was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded interior defensive lineman.
Of course, Jones hasn’t faced many offensive lines as good as the Eagles’. That starts with Kelce. His versatility and football IQ will be on center stage alongside guards Landon Dickerson and Isaac Seumalo.
The trio has combined to allow just two sacks this season, according to PFF. And they’ve faced some good opposition: the Commanders (Jonathan Allen), the Titans (Jeffrey Simmons), the Steelers (Cameron Hayward), the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), and the Colts (DeForest Buckner). Again, though, Jones is on a different level from all of them right now.
2) Travis Kelce vs. C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Avonte Maddox and the Eagles’ underneath linebackers
The unknown is what makes this matchup so intriguing. The NFL has never seen a tight end do the things that Kelce is doing right now.
Rob Gronkowski may have been more of a physical force. Jimmy Graham may have been a more athletic pass catcher. George Kittle may have had more dynamic seasons. But no tight end has played as central and consistent a role in a team’s week-to-week offense than Kelce has for the Chiefs over the last few seasons.
Don’t think so? Check out where Kelce’s last 50 games rank all time among tight ends:
Targets: First (470, 12 ahead of Tony Gonzalez’s best stretch)
Receptions: First (343, 25 ahead of Zach Ertz’s best stretch)
Yards: First (4,244, 203 ahead of Gronkowski’s best stretch)
First downs: First (241, 33 ahead of Gronkowski)
There aren’t a lot of historical comps, let alone comps from the last couple of seasons that might give us some idea of how Jonathan Gannon and the Eagles defense will handle Kelce.
In Gannon’s two seasons as defensive coordinator the Eagles have allowed opposing tight ends to average 5.4 catches, 52.7 yards and 3.1 first downs per game. Those numbers are pretty typical for NFL defenses as a whole.
Yet Kelce’s role in the Chiefs offense is so atypical that we can’t really draw any conclusions from a broad sample. Gardner-Johnson could find himself with some significant responsibilities. He and Avonte Maddox will be focal points against a Kansas City offense that complements Kelce with the presence of slot receiver Juju Smith-Schuster.
The fact that the Eagles have a safety who can
defend one-on-one in space gives them some options that other teams can’t get away with. The combination of Kelce’s route-running and toughness and Mahomes’ arm strength make him difficult to take away with a traditional safety/linebacker bracket.
This will be the No. 1 chess match to watch.
3) Jonathan Gannon vs. Andy Reid, Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney and Noah Gray
Gannon is a very good coach, in large part because he keeps it simple. He understands his personnel, lines them up according to their strengths, teaches them proper technique and facilitates communication. Even when the Eagles defense was struggling last season, you could still tell that it was a well-coached unit.
But as well as Gannon understands his own side, there isn’t a coach in the league who better understands his opponent than Reid. Everything that we know about these two teams suggests that the Eagles are the appropriate favorites. But games are often decided by the things that we don’t know, and there is a lot about this Chiefs offense that makes it difficult to know. Tops on that list is the health of Mahomes’ right ankle — if he can’t plant on his foot better than he did against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC championship game, there may not be much that Reid can do.
But if two weeks of rest leaves Mahomes anywhere close to full strength, you can bet that Reid will have a long list of plays designed to take advantage of what Gannon’s defense does well.
Case in point: While Kelce and Smith-Schuster are the Chiefs’ most targeted receivers, they are responsible for only five of the Chiefs’ last 21 pass plays of 20-plus yards. Five of those plays have gone to McKinnon, who could find himself matched up against an Eagles linebacker who has had some struggles in coverage in Kyzir White. Gray, the Chiefs’ No. 2 tight end, has catches of 27 and 25 yards over the Chiefs’ last seven games.
The biggest wild card at Reid’s disposal is Toney. In more ways than one. After leaving the AFC championship game with an ankle injury, the shifty playmaker did not practice last week and is listed as questionable for the Super Bowl. Of Toney’s 28 touches since joining the Chiefs from the Giants, 15 have gone for first downs.