What are the odds on Wolf’s agenda?
Some of the governor’s ambitions face strong Republican opposition
HARRISBURG – Gov. Tom Wolf will deliver the first budget speech of his second term Tuesday before an audience of lawmakers in the state Capitol.
The speech — and the reaction to it — could set the tone for the Democratic governor's next four years.
Wolf can ask for anything he wants in the 2019-20 fiscal year that begins July 1: more educa- tion spending, extra criminal justice reforms, higher minimum wage, more workforce development programs, natural gas severance tax, welfare reform. But it's the Republicancontrolled Legislature that holds the purse strings.
And those purse strings can get tangled in the monetary and political horse-trading that goes on during budget negotiations among the governor, House and Senate.
“Everything is related to everything and that is never more true than in June,” said Steve Crawford, a Harrisburg lobbyist who served as Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell's chief of staff from 2003-2011. “You'd be surprised what gets to pass as votes in the budget. Everybody feels like they've got leverage.”
That was the case at the start of Wolf's first term. He took office after becoming the first challenger in the modern political era to knock off an incumbent, Republican Tom Corbett, in 2014. In that same election, Republicans picked up more seats in the House and Senate.
All of them came to Harrisburg thinking they had a man- date from the people. It got messy. Fast.
Republicans, primarily in the House, opposed all the many tax and spend aspects of Wolf's first three budget proposals. That led to delayed budgets papered over with niche tax increases, internal fund shifting and other one-time fixes.
This year's budget was much smoother. It coincided with an election year, which turned out well for Democrats.
Wolf trounced Republican challenger Scott Wagner in November. Democrats also picked up seats, narrowing the GOP
majorities. Those majorities, however, became more conservative because Democrats knocked off moderate Republicans who tended to side with Wolf on some tax and spend ideas.
This time: Could Wolf and Democrats test their muscle by making unyielding budget demands? Could Republicans seek payback by being unwilling to negotiate on any of Wolf’s priorities?
“The problem is ideological,” said G. Terry Madonna, political science professor and pollster at Franklin & Marshall College.
Everyone knows Wolf is going to push “liberal/ progressive rhetoric” of a minimum wage increase and other ideals, said Charlie Gerow, a Republican consultant in Harrisburg. The questions are: “What is [Wolf ] serious about accomplishing? And [does] he know what is realistic” in terms of passing the Legislature.
Money and taxes may not be as big a factor as in other years.
That’s because the economy is doing much better than in Wolf’s first term, when he sought income and sales taxes to close big deficits. As of the end of December, the state had collected $15.3 billion in taxes, nearly $404 million or 3 percent above estimates.
Wolf and Republican lawmakers are counting on that extra revenue not only to make the budget negotiations easier, but also to negate a $1.7 billion deficit projected by the Legislature’s nonpartisan Independent Fiscal Office.
Here’s a look at some policy and budget goals Wolf is expected to seek, and the odds of them passing.
More education money
Wolf hasn’t revealed his funding request for public schools. But he said it’s going to be more than this year’s, which is nearly 38 percent of the state’s $33 billion budget.
Chance: 80-20 but perhaps not at whatever level Wolf seeks.
Reason: Both parties favored extra education money during Wolf’s first term without much debate on the dollar amounts.
Minimum wage increase
Wolf wants the current $7.25 hourly rate to rise to $12 this year and more than $15 after 2026. He argues 29 other states have increased mandatory minimum pay. He also argues a higher minimum wage will reduce welfare rolls, saving taxpayers a net of $75.4 million in government subsidized health care and child care.
Chance: 52-48, but not at Wolf’s preferred rates. Reason: Look for a negotiated increase of $10-plus only because the rate hasn’t changed in a decade, say Crawford and Gerow.
Workforce development
Wolf is expected to ask for more money to continue his PAsmart initiative that began this year with $30 million. It provides grants to schools and other outfits that train workers for careers in science, technology, engineering and math fields that do not require college degrees.
Chance: 90-10.
Reason: Strong bipartisan support to create more middle-class jobs.
Severance tax
Wolf’s latest severance tax on natural gas drillers technically is not part of the annual budget but the politics surrounding it will be.
Wolf’s “Restore Pennsylvania” plan is seeking the tax to make $4.6 billion to bring high-speed internet access to poor urban areas and far-flung rural communities, address stormwater sewage problems, improve flood-prone streams and rivers, and remove blight in communities.
Chance: 15-85.
Reason: Wolf and Democrats are going to have to work hard to court rural Republicans, who in the past have opposed a severance tax but also have advocated for the state to pay for internet hookups and more flood control measures in their communities.
Criminal justice reform
Since 2011, Republicans and Democrats have worked to reduce the financial and human cost of the state’s prison system, which saw its biggest one-year drop in inmate population (2.2 percent to 47,370). That bipartisan push is expected to continue if Wolf signs onto the bipartisan Senate Bill 14, which would reduce costs by limiting how long criminals can serve probation and how long they can be sent to state or county prison for violating that probation.
Success: 40-60.
Reason: This latest criminal justice reform push coincides with a renewed bipartisan legislative push to improve victims rights through a constitutional amendment. Aspects of the victims rights bill, known as Marsy’s Law, run counter to Senate Bill 14’s change in restitution payments.