Forecasters: Snowy weekend, but totals still a guessing game

If the forecasters are right, the weekend will start and end with snow, with a break in between.

As of 7:30 p.m. Friday, meteorologist Ed Vallee, who provides forecasts for The Morning Call, predicted residents would wake up to about 2 to 4 inches of snow Saturday morning with the snow expected to begin around 9 p.m. Friday and continue overnight.

Periods of snow are likely to continue through Saturday morning and into the afternoon, Vallee said.

The “in like a lion, out like a lamb” proverb will come into play Sunday, however, with the lion seemingly ready to roar. Vallee expected a second snowstorm to begin Sunday morning and continue overnight into Monday morning.

“The second system will approach from the southwest Sunday, with snow beginning Sunday by midday,” Vallee said. “Snow will continue overnight Sunday night into Monday morning and may briefly change to rain overnight before ending, but confidence on this aspect is low. This storm's track remains uncertain, with some data further south, leaving our region in the center of heavier accumulating snow,” Vallee said.

Vallee said other data still brings the storm north, which would result in a period of snow changing to a mix and rain.

He's blended the data with the mean forecast amount around 4 to 8 inches, but expects further changes as the system's impacts become more clear.

Boom versus bust

Vallee says the boom/bust scenarios for these storms are broken down as follows:

Friday into Saturday:

Boom scenario (more snow than expected — 20 percent probability): 4-6”

Bust scenario (less snow than expected — 10 percent probability): 1-2”

Expected scenario — 70 percent probability: 2-4”

Sunday night-Monday:

Boom scenario (more snow than expected — 15 percent probability): 8-12 inches (southern track)

Bust scenario (less snow than expected — 15 percent probability): 2-4 inches (northern track)

Expected scenario — 70 percent probability: 4-8 inches

The National Weather Service predicts 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Lehigh Valley from Friday into Saturday, owing to mixing of sleet and rain on the front and back end of the system.

A hazardous weather outlook posted by the Mount Holly forecast office for Sunday's storm says a winter system has the potential to produce “significant snowfall” and hazardous travel.