Look to dearth of timely hitting for downturn
You hear that noise? It was in the distance for a while, but it’s getting ever so close. Watch out Phillies, here come the … Mets? How’d that happen?
The Mets entered Thursday winners of nine of their last 10 games and the chance to tie the Phillies if the Phils’ listless offense can’t find a way to beat the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Yes, the Phillies started Aaron Nola, but they still have to score runs. (The game ended too late for this edition. Please go to mcall.com/sports for the recap.)
The Mets were nine games below .500 at the start of July and trailed the Phillies by 6 1⁄2 games. But so much has changed. New York plays the Nationals this weekend in a series filled with high-profile pitching matchups. The Nationals, according to FanGraphs, have an 80.4% chance of making the playoffs. The Mets have a 40.8% chance. And the Phillies? They have a 15% chance. So, you’re telling me there’s a chance.
“As competitors we never count anybody else out in the division because we know how talented everybody in this division is,” manager Gabe Kapler said. “When our club is playing our best baseball, we’re going to be unbeatable.”
Wednesday night’s loss was not defined by the Phillies’ failure to hit with runners in scoring position, but their fall from first place to wild-card hanger-on has been. The Phillies had just three chances on Wednesday night with runners in scoring position and they went hitless in each of them.
The Phillies’ lineup has failed to produce the way the team expected it to after they added four All-Stars this offseason to join the likes of Rhys Hoskins. They rank below league average in nearly every offensive category. And a big part of their shortcomings is tied to their struggles to hit with runners in scoring position.
The Phillies entered Thursday batting .254 this season with runners in scoring position, which is the 10th-worst in baseball. Only the hapless Tigers and Marlins have a worse slugging percentage with runners in scoring position than the .390 mark the Phillies own.
“I think we’re all pretty frustrated. Certainly we’re a much better offensive club than we’re showing,” Kapler said. “I think when we do play the type of baseball that we’re capable of playing, we’re going to score more runs than we are right now.”
It has been hard to find a reason why the team struggles with situational hitting. The Phillies created a lineup that should be able to pounce in these situations. Instead, they are spending this week trying to remind their lineup that the pressure is on the pitcher when runners are in scoring position. The anxiety should be on the mound, the coaches are telling the players, not in the batter’s box. They are telling their hitters to get started early, begin loading your swing during the pitcher’s delivery and you’ll be ready and relaxed when the pitch arrives.
It could be easier said than done. Their struggles did not sprout up last week. The Phillies lost control of first place on June 12 and since then, they have the fewest home runs (6) in baseball with runners in scoring position and the most strikeouts with runners in scoring position in the National League. They are batting .239 since June 12 with runners in scoring position, 74 points lower than the NL-leading Pirates.
“I think we’re a team here. We win as a team, we lose as a team, we fight as a team, we scratch and claw for every advantage as a team, and when we’re not getting it done as a group, we all put additional pressure on ourselves,” Kapler said. “Obviously if the offense isn’t performing to their capability, I think our pitching staff is going to put a little extra pressure on themselves to make the perfect pitch.
“And if our pitching staff isn’t throwing up zeroes, then our offense is going to put a tremendous amount of pressure on ourselves to score runs. That’s never the best environment and we have to find ways to get stronger as a unit so that we can remove some of the pressure from each other as teammates.”
Even more troubling has been the team’s struggles with the bases loaded. Since June 12, they entered Thursday batting .213 with the bases loaded (and 0 for their last 10 and 3 for their last 33) with a .319 slugging percentage, worst in the National League.
The heart of the Phillies’ lineup — Hoskins, Harper, and Realmuto — have had their chances over this stretch. They came into San Francisco combined 3 for 21 with the bases loaded and batting just .234 with runners in scoring position since they fell out of first place.
The Phillies could be playing for their season over the next four games. They are trying to stay above water in the wildcard race and they’re playing one of the teams that is chasing them. Some success with runners on can help keep them afloat.