Presidential election will not be a referendum on racism
Irecently read a piece by Leonard Pitts, in which he suggested that the 2020 election would really be a referendum on white people. “[Trump] is wagering his presidency, after all, that they [white voters] share his patronizing disdain for people of color, his atavistic fear of the coming
America, his slimy bigotry. He is betting that if you use every hateful word but the one that begins with “n,” if you thereby give them room to rationalize and equivocate, you’ll find that white people are essentially the same now as 60 years ago. Is he right?”
Pitts is wrong. The 2020 election will not be a referendum on white people or racism. In the end all politics is personal, and for many voters nothing is more personal than the balance in their 401(k). The truth is that for many voters racial issues are important, but not the only important issue or even the most important one. It is wrong to assume that all Trump supporters necessarily agree with Trump’s racist rants or support him because he is a “racist blowhard.”
For many voters that support Trump, it is in spite of this repugnant behavior and because when it comes to the issue that animates many voters in the middle class — the economy — Trump is far, far more preferable than all of the Democratic candidates save perhaps Biden. As Bill Clinton said “it’s the economy stupid.”
Pitts premise would perhaps be correct if the choice were between
candidates who differed only in their racial views. However, this is certainly not going to be the case in the 2020 election. There is more at stake in the election than racial issues.
If one of the far left Democratic candidates, which is to say any candidate other than Biden, becomes the presidential candidate in 2020, the differences between Trump and that candidate regarding the economy will be so vast as to render secondary the differences regarding race, immigration, or wealth disparity. The referendum will be on capitalism vs. socialism.
Moreover, the Trump campaign understands this, but the Democrats seem not to. While it is true that Trump has focused his recent attacks on people of color, for example the “Squad,” these folks have among the most extreme left-leaning economic views. Some of the proposals supported by these politician’s, e.g. the Green New Deal, “Medicare For All,” reparation payments, etc., would not only decimate my 401(k) they might well destroy the U.S. economy.
Much as Richard Nixon ran against the liberal Supreme Court in the 1968 election on his law and order platform, the Trump campaign is setting up to run against the “Squad” as the defender of capitalism and democracy aka the American way of life.
Interestingly, the Democrats are playing right into this strategy by failing, at least so far, to separate themselves from the more extreme views of their far left candidates. If this continues into next fall, and that is a big if, Trump will be reelected not because he is a racist, but in spite of it, because he is the best candidate for the economy.
Evidently, the Democrats feel, in light of Bernie Sanders success in 2016, that they must use extreme leftist/socialist campaign rhetoric to animate their base, much as the Trump campaign uses so called “dog whistle” appeals to animate its base.
Thankfully, the base of either party is not sufficient to win the election. The problem is that the primary process forces candidates to move their positions to the extreme fringe of the party to secure the nomination. However, to win the general election the candidate must attract centrist voters. We might consider open primaries to ameliorate this problem.
In any event, under the current system the object is to have your opponent take such extreme positions during the primaries that they will not be able to attract the centrist voters necessary to win the general. However, not all extreme positions are created equal in terms of the angst they cause among the centrist voters.
In 2019, the issues most important to voters are the economy, health care, education and security. In other words, if the Democrats stakeout extreme economic positions, which most of them already have, this will be more damaging to them than Trump’s racism will be to him.
I would prefer Biden to Trump on many social issues (Biden is the only Democrat, at this time, that I would consider voting for). But, by Election Day he may be forced too far left on the economy to consider.