Now that the dust settled
If Kapler is shown out, could Showalter or Scioscia come in?
Now that the trading deadline dust has cleared and everyone is taking a deep breath, it is time for an assessment on the overall state of baseball — where teams are heading and what we can look forward to.
Here’s what’s certain: The Yankees, Astros, Braves and Dodgers are all assured of going to the postseason; the Red Sox will not be defending their world championship and hopes of getting back to the World Series any time soon have suddenly dimmed; and, finally, the Orioles, Tigers and Marlins are trotting out daily three of the worst teams in recent memory, further emphasizing baseball’s serious disparity problem.
Let’s start with the American League East, which the Yankees are going to win by a double-digit margin in games despite a rotation lacking even one consistently reliable starter. For that, the Yankees probably owe a big debt of gratitude to Colorado GM Jeff Bridich for electing not re-sign D.J. LeMahieu — even for the bargain two years, $24 million the Yankees got him for — and essentially waiving Mike Tauchman into the Bombers’ hands for next-to-nothing. In retrospect, those are two job-losing decisions.
There is no one left to challenge the Yankees in the division this year, and maybe even next year as well. Aside from their stunning three-game bombardment of the Yankees in Boston two weeks ago — ya think there might have been some sign stealing going on there? — the Red Sox never got untracked this season, primarily because their starting pitching was just as bad as the Yankees’, and they didn’t have near the bullpen to fortify it.
Because their industry-high payroll was precariously close to the highest luxury tax threshold, GM Dave Dombrowski was never able to secure a closer to replace Craig Kimbrel. On top of that, Mookie Betts has had a down year, far below his 2018 MVP numbers, and what appeared to be a deep bench at the start of the season, almost totally evaporated.
His last start (15K and 0 runs in 8 IP versus the Angels) notwithstanding, Chris Sale (6-11, 4.41) has been anything but a $30-million-per-season ace, and with numerous shoulder issues the past two years, you have to wonder if he’ll ever be that pitcher again.
In Sale, David Price, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and another likely arbitration increase for Betts, the Red Sox are going to be committed to $155-160 million on seven players alone next year. Both Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. (who also has had a very down year) are free agents after next season. Betts, in particular, has shown no inclination to want to re-sign in Boston.
After their major league best 19-9 April, it appeared as if the Tampa Bay Rays were ready to emerge as legitimate threats to the Yankees’ and Red Sox’s supremacy in the AL East. But in the months that followed, the Rays have shown to be a very flawed team that strikes out too much, is terrible with runners in scoring position and has pitching issues up and down the staff.
It hasn’t helped that despite manager Kevin Cash’s incessant short leash with both of them, their two best starters — Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow — are on the injured list for the foreseeable future. Heading into the weekend, the Rays had stranded 3.67 baserunners per game in scoring position, 27th worst in baseball.
At the bottom of the AL East, the Orioles, who are on pace to shatter the major league record (258 by the 2016 Reds) for most homers allowed in a season, are a complete embarrassment. So, too, are their fellow tankers, the Tigers and Marlins, and MLB should be ashamed that these organizations are able to charge major league ticket prices to watch these horrible teams that would be hard-pressed to win in the International League.
In the Marlins’ case, it’s looking more and more inevitable that Don Mattingly is going to take the fall, amid persisting rumors that Derek Jeter wants to turn the manager duties there over to his best pal Jorge Posada. If that does happen, not sure who to feel more sorry for — Mattingly or Posada.
This is just a hunch, albeit a welleducated one, but because the Twins did virtually nothing to address the voids in both their starting pitching and the bullpen, and the fact that Corey Kluber is close to returning to the Indians, it would not be at all surprising if the Indians overtake Rocco Baldelli’s surprising Twinkies in the AL Central.
Just based on past postseason performance against the Yankees, plus the Twins’ suspect pitching, especially their bullpen, the Indians, who vastly improved themselves with the additions of power bats Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes to their outfield.
The most exciting race in baseball from here on out is going to be the NL East. On paper, the Braves, Nationals, Phillies and Mets are all better than any of the three teams fighting for the NL Central title (none of whom seem capable of breaking away).
And while the Braves are probably going to hold on and win the division, their mediocre starting pitching and absence of a proven closer will preclude them advancing very far in the postseason.
At the same time, if the Phillies fail to make the postseason — and right now that’s looking like a strong possibility — there’s going to be a lot of soul searching from ownership and the front office about the $330-million signing of Bryce Harper and their increasingly unpopular manager, Gabe Kapler.
They can’t do anything about Harper, who for the second straight year is probably going to hit under .250 with more strikeouts than hits, but Kapler can expect to be fired and replaced with a more experienced, proven winner manager, like Buck Showalter or Mike Scioscia.