No meteorologist ever wants to talk about snow in August, and Vallee is no exception. But there is one thing he wanted to stress, and it’s short-term forecast variables once we hit October and November, before the winter season even starts.
“It’s still really early [to talk about snow] but the big thing I want to emphasize is there can be a number of issues going from fall into winter,” he said. “That’s when you look at the high latitude blocking and other things that can change the shortterm pattern very quickly. You saw that last Nov. 15 when we had the cool shot come in and we had that freak snowstorm.”
Forecasters also generally aren’t keen to look into a crystal ball and try and figure out if winter will arrive on time. The winter solstice is Dec. 21. Last year on that date it was 64 degrees in Allentown.
“That’s the problem with issuing any kind of definitive statement this far out,” Vallee said, chuckling. “Generally I think the beginning of winter in the Lehigh Valley will be a warmer start but we need to mention the ability for things to line up despite a warmer-thannormal pattern. The ‘fall impact’ on winter, including above-average temps that may last into November, is not as high as some may make it out be.”
Morning Call reporter Stephanie Sigafoos can be reached at 610-820-6612 or ssi[email protected]