Schedules of the future
Who will the IronPigs play and when? Johns Hopkins professors, students and a ‘super’ computer have a say in the matter
Tony Dahbura sat at Boston’s Fenway Park more than two decades ago with Detroit Tigers traveling secretary Bill Brown.
Major League Baseball scheduling was the hot topic for Brown and Dahbura, then a researcher for Motorola and professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Dahbura’s responses spawned a request from Brown to call MLB executive Katy Feeney.
“[Teams] were frustrated,” Dahbura recalled. “They wanted to look at different scheduling options.
“They wanted to look at applying technology to the problem.”
Dahbura provided a proof of concepts, and, eventually, MLB removed the human element from its team schedules.
A decade later, Hagerstown native Dahbura returned to Maryland and connected with Class A Hagerstown Suns general manager Kurt Landes regarding the same topic in the South Atlantic League.
Another proof of concepts led to another league transitioning its scheduling to a computer.
Landes, now the Lehigh Valley IronPigs GM, called upon Dahbura again in 2012 to help with ongoing scheduling issues in Triple-A’s International League.
On Monday, the IronPigs announced their 2020 schedule courtesy of Dahbura, fellow Johns Hopkins professor Donniell Fishkind, 18 of the brightest students on campus and what they call a “super” computer.
Dahbura, now an associate research scientist in its computer science department (among other responsibilities), and his group produce schedules for the IL, Double-A’s Southern League and Texas League; high-A’s Florida State League and Carolina League; low-A’s South Atlantic League and short-season’s New York-Penn League.
They also are in the proof of concepts stage with Triple-A’s Pacific Coast League and low-A’s Midwest League.
“It’s been word of mouth in the sense of endorsements,” Dahbura said. “It all started with [South Atlantic League president] Eric Krupa.”
The International League presents significant problems because of its geographic division setup (six teams in the North Division, four in the West and South), though some of the stress has been taken out in recent years by not requiring a balanced schedule
(teams playing those in their division the same number of times).
Other factors that create challenges for any league schedule include teams’ blackout dates. The International League has its share with the Indianapolis 500, Kentucky Derby (Louisville) and the ACC men’s basketball tournament (Durham or Norfolk).
“The schedule is so important to your success from a business standpoint,” Landes said. “You’re always trying to figure out ways to make it better for your players and in a business sense.
“It’s a hard solution to come up with when you have xnumber of games to play in x-number of days.”
Preparation for the 2020 schedule began more than 18 months ahead of time. Parameters for the computer are set, including teams’ blackout dates (the IronPigs do not submit any).
Each parameter is given a rating of importance for the computer to prioritize. Dahbura and his students work yearround to develop programs based on information from the leagues. Eventually, the computer spits out a series of schedules. Sometimes, it’s two or three; others, it’s as many as 75.
“Our group needs to have an extensive knowledge of baseball and the leagues and the nuances of travel, competitive balance and the needs of different teams,” Dahbura said. “Most of the students are into baseball. They fully enjoy it. Some have gone on to work with Major League Baseball in analytics departments.
“Each team’s specific request provides a great ‘what if ’ scenario. A way to look at it is a given team can either be home or away on a certain date. If a team requests being away on a date, that cuts down the possible number of solutions in half.”
The leagues fund the John Hopkins research projects, including paying for the computers and student travel among other aspects.
A group of Johns Hopkins students attend MLB’s Winter Meetings each December and give presentations to management officials from various leagues. This provides invaluable, real-life experiences for the students, Dahbura said.
“They’ve got to be prepared to field questions,” he said. “The students who are involved are there almost continuously until they graduate.”
IL president Randy Mobley sees the series of computergenerated schedule options, goes back to Dahbura and his group with questions or suggestions before the team GMs see the proposed schedule that is deemed best about 18 months out from that season’s Opening Day.
Major league teams get a look at their affiliates’ schedules to ensure the players’ best interests are considered with regard to days off and travel.
The IL GMs vote to ratify a league schedule at the annual all-star game in mid-July, but it is key to this group to have a schedule sooner.
“It’s important to have it because we start thinking about [season ticket] renewals and promotions,” Landes said. “We really started working on the 2020 season in May.”
Dahbura, his staff and all league presidents and team GMs are in a holding pattern regarding the 2021 schedule because the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the players association expires after 2020.
“There is a feeling of being behind,” Landes said. “It sounds more gruesome than what it is. There will be an agreement. We will move on.
“This is probably the biggest negotiation in 12, 15 years. I think there will be larger changes that haven’t happened in a couple of renewals — travel, facilities. And there’s been a lot of advances in technology, increased costs for bats, balls. There’s a lot to be hashed out. But once we get past 2021, I expect the next agreement to be 5, probably 10 years [long].”
Morning Call reporter Tom Housenick can be reached at 610-820-6651 or at thousenick@mcall.com