Needing to break a bad habit — and it can’t wait
Phillies’ poor showings vs. subpar foes is main factor behind own mediocrity
After an impressive three-game series sweep of the visiting Cubs last week, the Phillies dropped two of three to the visiting Padres.
Chicago leads the National League Central and San Diego is a sub-.500 club.
On Wednesday night, the Phils completed a two-game sweep of the defending World Series champion Red Sox at Fenway Park. They cannot afford to lose two of three to the Marlins, the team with the worst record in the NL, in a series that begins Friday evening in Miami.
How they’ve done against opponents such as the Cubs, Red Sox and majorleague-leading Dodgers isn’t the reason the Phillies went into Thursday 1 1⁄2 games out of the final wild-card spot.
Rather, blame Gabe Kapler’s club’s struggles versus mediocre or bad teams.
The Phils are inexplicably 6-7 against the Marlins, including an inexcusable three-game sweep at home. By comparison, Miami is 11-35 versus its other three NL East foes — 4-14 against the Braves, 4-11 versus the Mets and 3-10 against the Nationals.
In addition to the disappointing series versus the Padres, the Phillies lost two of three at home to the headed-nowhere White Sox in early August.
The Phillies are 22-23 against NL teams with losing records. After the Marlins, they face the league’s secondworst club, the Pirates, from Monday through Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. They’re 2-1 this season against Pittsburgh.
If you can’t beat the bad clubs, it’s probably a pretty good indication that you’re not very good.
That the 66-60 Phillies only have only one reliable starting pitcher, Aaron Nola, factors into the equation. Nola sports a sparkling ERA of 2.13 over his last 12 starts, when he has averaged six-plus innings per outing. He’s lasted less than 6 innings in just three of them.
Nola going deep in games prevents the flawed bullpen from having to handle too many innings, which is a big plus. He went seven in Tuesday’s 3-2 road victory over the Red Sox, allowing four hits and two earned runs. Left-hander Jose Alvarez and righty Mike Morin got through the eighth inning and Hector Neris survived a leadoff double in the ninth to record his 22nd save.
With the rest of the starting staff, Kapler typically must call upon relievers for three or more innings, which isn’t a recipe for success.
Wednesday’s 5-2 win over Boston required 16 outs from the bullpen — a three-hit shutout ball, to boot — after Drew Smyly lasted just 3 innings. While the five relievers were stellar, culminating with Neris’ 23rd save, that often isn’t the case.
There’s not much general manager Matt Klentak can do about the pitching now, but it merits mentioning that he shouldn’t have counted on three 30-somethings out of the ’pen — Tommy Hunter (5 innings), David Robertson (6
and Pat Neshek (18) — who have been limited by the injuries to a combined 30 innings at a 2019 cost of $26.6 million.
The offense could help by being more productive. But since averaging 8.7 runs in the first three games with Charlie Manuel as hitting coach, the Phillies have accumulated a total of 13 runs for an average of 3.3. So maybe the issue runs deeper than the man in charge.
It’s interesting that if the Phillies continue to pitch Nola every fifth day — he’s starting Sunday in Miami — he’ll be on course to get the ball for the Sept. 29 season finale versus Miami. In that scenario, Nola wouldn’t be available for a potential one-game wild-card matchup or until Game 3 or 4 of the best-of-five NL divisional series against the Dodgers should the Phillies get that far.
Yes, we’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves. And if the Phils don’t start taking advantage of lesser clubs like the Marlins, it might not matter when Nola pitches during the final week.