Trop­i­cal Storm Do­rian likely to take on strength as it moves west

The Morning Call - - NATION & WORLD -

“Do­rian is likely to be a dif­fi­cult cy­clone to fore­cast due to the mar­ginal en­vi­ron­ment it is em­bed­ded within and its small size.”

MI­AMI — Weather fore­cast­ers say the fourth trop­i­cal storm of this year’s Atlantic hur­ri­cane sea­son will strengthen as it moves through the Lesser An­tilles.

The U.S. Na­tional Hur­ri­cane Cen­ter said Sun­day that Trop­i­cal Storm Do­rian could in­ten­sify to near hur­ri­cane strength over the eastern Caribbean Sea by Tues­day.

As of 2 p.m. EDT Sun­day, the storm’s cen­ter was around 430 miles east-south­east of Bar­ba­dos and was mov­ing west at 14 mph. Max­i­mum sus­tained winds re­mained near 40 mph.

A trop­i­cal storm warn­ing was in ef­fect for Bar­ba­dos. Trop­i­cal storm watches were is­sued for St. Lu­cia and St. Vin­cent and the Gre­nadines. Ad­di­tional watches and warn­ings could be is­sued later Sun­day.

The ad­vi­sory says Puerto Rico, the Do­mini­can Repub­lic, and Haiti should mon­i­tor the storm’s progress.

The storm threat to Puerto Rico is un­cer­tain at this point given fore­cast un­cer­tainty, but this is not likely to be as for­mi­da­ble a storm as Hur­ri­cane Maria was when it dev­as­tated the is­land in 2017.

“It should be stressed that Do­rian is likely to be a dif­fi­cult cy­clone to fore­cast due to the mar­ginal en­vi­ron­ment it is em­bed­ded within and its small size,” the Hur­ri­cane Cen­ter wrote in a fore­cast dis­cus­sion Sun­day morn­ing.

The Hur­ri­cane Cen­ter noted the pres­ence of dry air near the

—U.S. Na­tional Hur­ri­cane Cen­ter

storm that could put a lid on its in­ten­si­fi­ca­tion.

In ad­di­tion to Do­rian, an area, which is be­ing called “98L,” sev­eral hun­dred miles off­shore of the Florida-Ge­or­gia bor­der is also worth watch­ing. The Hur­ri­cane Cen­ter is fore­cast­ing that there is an 80% chance that this weather sys­tem will in­ten­sify, pos­si­bly grow­ing to a trop­i­cal storm or even a hur­ri­cane by the mid­dle of the work­week, while remaining well off­shore.

If this oc­curs, it will earn the name Erin.

Aside from some ad­di­tional shower and thun­der­storm ac­tiv­ity Tues­day over the Outer Banks of the Caroli­nas, the only sign on shore of 98L’s ex­is­tence will come in the form of high waves and rip cur­rents for beaches from the Mid Atlantic to New Eng­land.

The Wash­ing­ton Post con­trib­uted.

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