Making the case for ’19
Can Nittany Lions be playoff contenders or will they end up looking for a new coach?
Penn State begins the 2019 football season with a twin blast of promise and uncertainty, teeming with high-ceilinged recruits who need game snaps to find their way. As James Franklin and his assistants have asserted, this is the most athletic and talented roster, across 85 scholarships players, that they have worked with at Penn State. But the team also lost 20 scholarship players with 2019 eligibility (to transfers, NFL departures and personal reasons) since the Citrus Bowl, a churn that certainly affected the roster.
All of that makes Penn State’s 2019 prospects difficult to read. A Big Ten preseason poll conducted by cleveland.com projected Penn State to finish fourth in the East Division, while The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel is sending the Lions to the Rose Bowl.
Each outcome is possible, as are a few others. Here’s how the 2019 Penn State season could end in a
trip to the College Football Playoff or, um, a coaching search.
College Football Playoff
Penn State wisely uses the first two games against Idaho, an FCS team that went 4-7 last year, and Buffalo to rep quarterback Sean Clifford, his receivers and an offensive line breaking in two new starters. Then the Lions dismantle Pitt and Maryland, both in high-energy stadiums, to reach 4-0.
After that, Clifford’s polish and confidence mask his first-year growth spurt, and Penn State’s offense blends its run game with the big-play groove of receiver KJ Hamler and tight end Pat Freiermuth.
Defensively, coordinator Brent Pry restrains offenses with a quick and durable front seven that leads the Big Ten in sacks. That group peaks with constricting games against at least two of the three toughest quarterbacks on the schedule: Michigan’s Shea Patterson, Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke and Ohio State’s Justin Fields.
In this scenario, Penn State wins in Columbus, something it has done just twice since joining the Big Ten, and heads to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game.
Big Ten contender
This would be the frustrating continuation of the past two seasons, when the Lions were eliminated by their fingertips against Ohio State and Michigan State (and, of course, Michigan’s 2018 humbling). It’s also the most likely outcome, producing a 10-2 or 9-3 record and that keeps Penn State in contention for a New Year’s 6 bowl game.
In this scenario, PSU’s offense lags in the three high-profile division games (two are on the road), or the defense slips on a critical fourthquarter stop. This isn’t a bad season by any stretch and perhaps serves as a championship launch point to 2020.
Mid-level bowl game
Getting into disappointment territory here. Penn State’s schedule ripples with potentially difficult games, starting with Purdue’s visit in October and culminating with that trip to Columbus. It’s a seven-game stretch that could produce multiple losses.
If this happens, that means Franklin is answering questions about unproductive skill-position players, a defense that is inexplicably allowing big plays and special teams that haven’t improved. This is an 8-4 or 7-5 team pondering a bowl trip to Tampa or Nashville.
Penn State’s Oct. 12 visit to Iowa will be instructive. The Lions should be 5-0, coming off a win over Purdue, heading into a probable night game in Iowa City. That’s where this team truly starts charting its course.
Coaching search
In this end-of-days scenario, the Lions surprisingly lose an early game (to Pitt or Maryland), get run out of Iowa and don’t recover. Injuries deplete positions where Penn State can’t afford losses, the offense staggers to score 17 points and Franklin is photographed every week looking mournfully at the scoreboard.
If somehow the season truly gets away from Franklin, and his team lands in the Redbox Bowl after going 6-6, calls for change will fly. They’ll be dismissed, since Penn State would have to pay Franklin a $17.85 million buyout at season’s end.
Instead, rumors might resurface about Franklin being considered for other jobs (like the USC speculation last year).
Better to avoid this ugliness and just go to the playoff.
Morning Call reporter Mark Wogenrich can be reached at 610-820-6588 or at mwogenrich@mcall.com.