Difficult road ahead
To reach wild card, Phillies need to clear hurdles — and get help
There is a simple reason the Phillies, despite having a shot at their first trip to the playoffs since 2011, are playing in front of so many empty seats at Citizens Bank Park during the stretch run.
In short, some Phillies fans don’t believe Gabe Kapler’s team is good enough to reach the postseason, so they’ve turned their attention to the Eagles.
It’s hard to blame them.
Each time the Philly faithful convince themselves the club is back in the mix for the second National League wild-card berth, the Phillies struggle.
They won four in a row, including a three-game sweep of the Cubs, from Aug. 13-16, only to drop the final two of the homestand to the mediocre Padres.
In early September, they took three in a row, including the first two of a series against the Reds, before losing the final two to sub-.500 Cincinnati.
Over the weekend, they won the last two games from the Mets at Citi Field before getting thumped 7-2 by the NL Eastleading Braves on Monday evening. The announced crowd was 25,071.
The Phils went into Tuesday three games behind Chicago, which holds the final wild-card spot, with 19 to play. While that doesn’t sound insurmountable, the Phillies’ tough remaining schedule and the fact that the Brewers (two games out) and Diamondbacks (2 1⁄2) were also ahead of the them increase the degree of difficulty because they must catch and pass three clubs in less than 2 1⁄2 weeks.
Asked prior to Tuesday night’s game what is happening to the Phils each time they get close, Kapler said the answer changes from instance to instance.
“I think what prevented us from taking that step [Monday] night was a quality start from [Atlanta’s Mike Foltynewicz], a tough start to [Aaron] Nola’s day, our inability to scratch across runs and really do anything until the end of the game,” Kapler said. “[We just got] outplayed by the Braves. That’s what didn’t allow us to get over the hump this time.”
While the Phillies have lost each of Nola’s last four starts, Kapler plans on continuing to call upon his ace every fifth day. I would do the same thing. Let’s be honest — what are Kapler’s other viable options?
Yes, Nola has an ERA of 5.01 (13 earned runs in 23 1⁄3 innings) during his last four outings, but he consistently gives the Phils a chance. Plus, he’s averaging just under six innings in those starts, which limits how much the unreliable bullpen has to pitch.
Nola will start again Saturday, while Vince Velasquez won’t pitch again until Sunday, making it one week between starts. Velasquez is 1-0 in his past four starts, but he’s lasted just 14 2⁄3 innings with an 8.87 ERA.
Drew Smyly has won his last two starts while giving up just one run in 12 1⁄3 innings, but that was after posting a 7.20 ERA in five August appearances.
Jason Vargas had a 6.72 ERA in the three starts heading into Tuesday.
Zach Eflin, who starts Wednesday vs. Atlanta, has been pretty good since returning to the starting rotation in mid-August, compiling a 3.32 ERA in 21 2⁄3 innings during those four outings. He, like nearly all of the Phils’ starters, has been inconsistent.
The four-game series with the Braves ends Thursday night, then the Phillies host the Red Sox twice before heading out on an 11-game road trip versus the Braves (three), Indians (three) and Nationals (five). The season concludes with a three-game home series against the Marlins.
“We’re not doing anything wrong,” Eflin said. “It just comes down to certain parts of the game where sometimes we don’t come through [and] sometimes we do come through. It’s just the nature of the beast and how this game works. … We’re still within reaching distance. We’re coming in every single day ready to win, play hard and play Phillies baseball.”
The offense has averaged 5.6 runs over the past 12 games, but was limited to three or fewer runs three times during that span.
“There’s failure on both sides — pitching and offensively,” said outfielder Corey Dickerson. “Sometimes we’ll carry the pitching and the pitching will carry us. But how can we work more cohesively together to be a little bit more consistent? I think consistency is the key right now.”
Unfortunately for the Phillies and the fans still following them closely, they’re running out of time to figure out how to make it happen.